Generated evidence · pending editorial review
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Celeration turns: changes between fitted phases
A factor describes a standardized six-month multiplier, not a count. These turns passed the scan’s volume and magnitude gates; phase selection remains exploratory.
- Suggested boundary December 2020: ÷1.69 → ÷3.31 per six months; 1.95× change between factors. Adjacent raw phase totals: 1,585 and 569. The fitted slope changes without reversing sign.
- Suggested boundary January 2022: ÷3.31 → ÷1.07 per six months; 3.1× change between factors. Adjacent raw phase totals: 569 and 4,319. The fitted slope changes without reversing sign.
Saved observations and fitted phases
Suggested 3-phase description — exploratory, not confirmed.
Suggested phases · exploratory · per six months
- 1 · Jan 2019–Nov 2020÷1.69Fitted decrease
- 2 · Dec 2020–Dec 2021÷3.31Fitted decrease
- 3 · Jan 2022–Sep 2026÷1.07Fitted decrease
Check the evidence
Interpretation and limitations (11)
- Exploratory description, not a forecast, causal explanation or proof of a change.
- Approximate 95% factor intervals assume independent, constant-variance log residuals and fixed boundaries. They do not account for boundary search, serial dependence or source revisions.
- Confirmed zeros are treated as 1 only for fitting and its diagnostics. Raw counts stay zero; low-count results depend on this convention.
- Independent phase lines may jump at boundaries. Every observation belongs to exactly one phase.
- Reporting, classifications and seasonality can change. Counts are not population-adjusted; a level shift without a slope change is not the target of this search.
- Uses dated last-good cached data, not newly verified source counts.
- Boundary ranges show near-optimal models within 2 BIC units, not confidence intervals. They can be narrow even when the model is uncertain.
- 311 status is its value at retrieval, not at request creation. Newer cohorts have had less time to close; Open/Canceled comparisons can reflect workflow or cohort age rather than changing request volume.
- Current-system 311 coverage starts in 2019. Early phases may reflect adoption/reporting ramp-up; request counts are not completed work or incident prevalence.
- Many dependent filter conditions were searched. No multiple-testing-adjusted significance or causal attribution is claimed.
- Frequency compares fixed equal-length windows of raw counts, not population risk or a celeration-factor ratio. Reporting, classifications and exposure may have changed.
Phase diagnostics
| Phase | Start–end | Months | Factor / six months | Conditional 95% interval | Zeros fitted as 1 | Lag-one residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | January 2019–November 2020 | 23 | ÷1.69 | 0.4770–0.7310 | 0 | 0.062 |
| 2 | December 2020–December 2021 | 13 | ÷3.31 | 0.1980–0.4611 | 0 | -0.020 |
| 3 | January 2022–September 2026 | 57 | ÷1.07 | 0.8905–0.9872 | 0 | 0.279 |
Exact monthly observations (120 slots)
| Month | Raw count | Coverage |
|---|---|---|
| September 2026 | 59 | complete |
| August 2026 | 40 | complete |
| July 2026 | 29 | complete |
| June 2026 | 63 | complete |
| May 2026 | 87 | complete |
| April 2026 | 90 | complete |
| March 2026 | 147 | complete |
| February 2026 | 84 | complete |
| January 2026 | 79 | complete |
| December 2025 | 48 | complete |
| November 2025 | 41 | complete |
| October 2025 | 34 | complete |
| September 2025 | 16 | complete |
| August 2025 | 52 | complete |
| July 2025 | 35 | complete |
| June 2025 | 63 | complete |
| May 2025 | 38 | complete |
| April 2025 | 67 | complete |
| March 2025 | 89 | complete |
| February 2025 | 78 | complete |
| January 2025 | 45 | complete |
| December 2024 | 19 | complete |
| November 2024 | 81 | complete |
| October 2024 | 59 | complete |
| September 2024 | 25 | complete |
| August 2024 | 101 | complete |
| July 2024 | 44 | complete |
| June 2024 | 91 | complete |
| May 2024 | 133 | complete |
| April 2024 | 109 | complete |
| March 2024 | 104 | complete |
| February 2024 | 105 | complete |
| January 2024 | 135 | complete |
| December 2023 | 47 | complete |
| November 2023 | 52 | complete |
| October 2023 | 58 | complete |
| September 2023 | 50 | complete |
| August 2023 | 61 | complete |
| July 2023 | 30 | complete |
| June 2023 | 27 | complete |
| May 2023 | 109 | complete |
| April 2023 | 65 | complete |
| March 2023 | 135 | complete |
| February 2023 | 153 | complete |
| January 2023 | 167 | complete |
| December 2022 | 64 | complete |
| November 2022 | 132 | complete |
| October 2022 | 39 | complete |
| September 2022 | 80 | complete |
| August 2022 | 92 | complete |
| July 2022 | 88 | complete |
| June 2022 | 74 | complete |
| May 2022 | 100 | complete |
| April 2022 | 148 | complete |
| March 2022 | 143 | complete |
| February 2022 | 56 | complete |
| January 2022 | 59 | complete |
| December 2021 | 7 | complete |
| November 2021 | 10 | complete |
| October 2021 | 18 | complete |
| September 2021 | 35 | complete |
| August 2021 | 12 | complete |
| July 2021 | 27 | complete |
| June 2021 | 21 | complete |
| May 2021 | 61 | complete |
| April 2021 | 72 | complete |
| March 2021 | 93 | complete |
| February 2021 | 71 | complete |
| January 2021 | 80 | complete |
| December 2020 | 62 | complete |
| November 2020 | 10 | complete |
| October 2020 | 14 | complete |
| September 2020 | 24 | complete |
| August 2020 | 28 | complete |
| July 2020 | 42 | complete |
| June 2020 | 25 | complete |
| May 2020 | 35 | complete |
| April 2020 | 63 | complete |
| March 2020 | 47 | complete |
| February 2020 | 39 | complete |
| January 2020 | 64 | complete |
| December 2019 | 34 | complete |
| November 2019 | 65 | complete |
| October 2019 | 59 | complete |
| September 2019 | 82 | complete |
| August 2019 | 102 | complete |
| July 2019 | 108 | complete |
| June 2019 | 123 | complete |
| May 2019 | 126 | complete |
| April 2019 | 120 | complete |
| March 2019 | 215 | complete |
| February 2019 | 141 | complete |
| January 2019 | 19 | complete |
| December 2018 | Unavailable | missing |
| November 2018 | Unavailable | missing |
| October 2018 | Unavailable | missing |
| September 2018 | Unavailable | missing |
| August 2018 | Unavailable | missing |
| July 2018 | Unavailable | missing |
| June 2018 | Unavailable | missing |
| May 2018 | Unavailable | missing |
| April 2018 | Unavailable | missing |
| March 2018 | Unavailable | missing |
| February 2018 | Unavailable | missing |
| January 2018 | Unavailable | missing |
| December 2017 | Unavailable | missing |
| November 2017 | Unavailable | missing |
| October 2017 | Unavailable | missing |
| September 2017 | Unavailable | missing |
| August 2017 | Unavailable | missing |
| July 2017 | Unavailable | missing |
| June 2017 | Unavailable | missing |
| May 2017 | Unavailable | missing |
| April 2017 | Unavailable | missing |
| March 2017 | Unavailable | missing |
| February 2017 | Unavailable | missing |
| January 2017 | Unavailable | missing |
| December 2016 | Unavailable | missing |
| November 2016 | Unavailable | missing |
| October 2016 | Unavailable | missing |
Source and reproducibility
- Publisher dataset
- 311 Service Requests · City of Chicago
- Source retrieved
- 2026-11-06T17:28:32.885Z
- Publisher update
- 2026-11-06T15:33:29.000Z
- Covered months
- January 2019–September 2026
- Source note
- Source v6vf-nfxy. Joint day/category/hour/applicable-flag/ward/status counts; no addresses, coordinates or incident identifiers. Each year's cells reconcile with an independent source total. Reads are not an atomic publisher snapshot. Current 311 system only, legacy_record=false; includes duplicate requests, not completed work. Status is as currently published, grouped by creation date—not historical status or completion date. Prepared daily community-area snapshot; scheduled rebuild at 06:00 America/Chicago. Full supported history is rechecked for corrections. Retrieval timestamps are preserved; this is not a real-time feed. Local indexed neighborhood snapshot. Totals are for the loaded area before other filters, not citywide totals. Citywide and unassigned-area views use a separate network-backed scope.
- Snapshot
- daily-v1:8c35ac8d-21c1-45e9-8c56-8bf32f3df7b0:neighborhood-v2:e7960081fd0af1502eb624a9ffea00cf
- Discovery method
- multi-feed-turn-and-frequency-renewal-v2
- Analyze method
- exploratory-segmented-log10-ols-zero-as-one-v3
- Search plan
- a3ffccedeb8d8ce18a30df3636839f775af1e5188e55a1f685695133135c6e35
- Evidence run
- c68872352234c94318b5369d5ea2e452aa2a2296f353160a630551000efaa122
Challenge the pattern
Check unfiltered totals, comparable communities, source revisions and administrative definitions before treating this candidate as evidence of a real-world explanation. Only explicitly documented follow-ups above have been performed; no others are implied by the ranking. Browse the other pothole requests candidates or review the complete screening method.