Chicago Data / Research preview
What changed in the data?
A starting point for investigation—not a list of conclusions. Explore unusual changes in published Chicago records, see the original counts, and ask what else could explain the pattern.
- Filter conditions scanned
- 10,925
- Exploratory candidates
- 293
- Named communities
- 77
- Data feeds
- 5
Explore by dataset
Keep the measure in view. A crime report, a license record and a service request are different kinds of evidence.
Changes in Chicago crime reports
116 qualifying candidates · 0 annual-only contexts · 46 frequency flags · 75 turn flags
Published reports and record attributes, not population-adjusted risk or causal effects.
Changes in Chicago business-license records
1 qualifying candidates · 70 annual-only contexts · 1 frequency flags · 0 turn flags
License terms include renewals. Category or administrative changes are not evidence of business openings or closures.
Changes in Chicago graffiti service requests
92 qualifying candidates · 0 annual-only contexts · 68 frequency flags · 32 turn flags
311 status is measured at retrieval, not creation. Recent Open cohorts have had less time to close. Early 2019 phases may reflect reporting-system adoption; requests are not completed work.
Changes in Chicago pothole service requests
84 qualifying candidates · 0 annual-only contexts · 83 frequency flags · 2 turn flags
311 status is measured at retrieval, not creation. Recent Open cohorts have had less time to close. Requests are not completed work.
Chicago vacant-building requests: no flagged candidates
0 qualifying candidates · 0 annual-only contexts · 0 frequency flags · 0 turn flags
Reported requests, not a census of vacant buildings. Current status and reporting practices can change.
Patterns worth investigating
These examples pair numerical results with their limits. Archer Heights includes a documented renewal investigation; other proposed follow-ups remain questions unless explicitly completed.
West Town robbery reports: 241 to 91 across two annual windows
The saved West Town robbery series is an example of a frequency finding that should not be relabeled as a confirmed turning point. Its two raw annual totals are different, but the native phase analysis withholds suggested turns because serial pattern remains in the candidate fits. The displayed line is a single-trend reference, not a finding that the decline began at a particular month.
New City pop-up license records: a window-sensitive increase
The New City series is license category 4409, labeled Pop-Up Retail User in the saved category catalogue. October 2024–September 2025 has 29 records; October 2025–September 2026 has 157. It passed the original annual screen but is now retained as window-sensitive review context, not a qualifying two-year frequency candidate.
Gage Park canceled graffiti requests: a status-cohort caution
This example compares 265 and 7 graffiti requests carrying the Canceled status at retrieval. The decline is large enough to pass the frequency screen, but the selected status creates an important interpretation problem: it is today’s saved classification applied to requests grouped by their creation month.
Archer Heights license records: a two-year renewal cycle, not a business-collapse measure
The original annual screen flagged 218 records in October 2024–September 2025 versus 119 in October 2025–September 2026: a 45.4% decrease. The arithmetic is correct, but the comparison crosses a major renewal year and an off-cycle year. Under the revised method this is annual-only review context, not a qualifying frequency candidate. Analyze also reported no clear change in celeration.
Rogers Park reports with an arrest flag: a fitted celeration reversal
This candidate concerns crime records in Rogers Park whose arrest field was true at retrieval, across all categories. It is not a measure of all arrests made in Rogers Park and does not establish a change in enforcement effectiveness. The selected attribute must remain part of any interpretation of the chart.
How the screen works
Deterministic numerical screening, followed by human interpretation. No model calls or new analyses run when you open a page.
Frequency: compare raw counts over declared windows
Crime and 311 compare the most recent 12 complete covered months with the preceding 12. Business licenses compare the latest 24 with the preceding 24, requiring 48 consecutive complete months, because two-year renewal schedules can distort annual comparisons. Every business category, community and ward condition uses this rule, not just the motivating example. Missing or provisional months make the comparison unavailable; there is no annual fallback.
The unchanged magnitude gates require at least a 1.5-fold change, an absolute monthly-mean difference of at least five records, and at least 120 raw records in the larger comparison window. Means divide totals by the actual window length (12 or 24); gates use unrounded values. Zero onset or cessation retains the raw zero rather than inventing an infinite ratio.
Keep window sensitivity visible
Business pages retain the annual comparison beside the two-year comparison. Annual-only flags are unranked review context, not qualifying frequency candidates. Opposing directions, two-year-only flags and insufficient history are labeled explicitly. The revised scan has 293 qualifying candidates and 70 additional annual-only contexts, whose original URLs remain available. The context count overlaps the no-finding/insufficient-evidence dispositions below; do not add it to the total conditions searched.
This revision was motivated by the observed Archer Heights case and remains exploratory. Fixed two-year windows reduce a renewal-calendar mismatch; they are not seasonal adjustment, proof that renewals explain every condition, a detected breakpoint or independent statistical validation. A longer window can dilute a genuinely recent change. No source observations were removed or corrected, and the same dated source snapshots were used.
Celeration: compare fitted multipliers
The shared Analyze engine fits at most three disjoint phases. Each monthly phase has at least 12 observations. A turn requires at least a 1.5-fold change between adjacent six-month factors and at least 120 raw records in each adjacent phase. Native selection rules and serial-pattern withholding remain in force. A withheld suggestion is not promoted to a turn or a finding of stability.
Charts retain the same six-log-cycle, 120-month frame. Confirmed zeros become one only in log-space fitting and diagnostics; observations, totals and plotted zero markers remain zero. Missing or provisional interior observations are not silently removed. Read about Standard Celeration Charts.
A declared search, not proof of significance
The scan searched named communities across the five feeds, using the baseline plus individual category, flag, time-band, ward or status conditions as applicable. It did not search arbitrary subsets or synthesize citywide totals. 9,944 conditions had no finding and 688 had insufficient evidence. Neither disposition proves stability. There were no pending conditions or errors in this saved run.
Turn priority combines the log of the factor change with supporting volume; frequency priority combines relative count difference with total volume. Priorities are compared only within a dataset and signal. Conditional factor intervals and near-optimal boundary ranges do not correct for searching thousands of dependent conditions. No calibrated false-discovery rate, peer-review claim or causal inference is offered.
Open the evidence, keep the question open
Every candidate has a stable page, its saved chart, exact monthly observations, source dates and a downloadable evidence record. The complete listing works without JavaScript; optional filters and saved-for-review choices run in your browser. Saves are not endorsements and are not sent to us.
The selected case studies and dataset guides are search-indexable. Other generated evidence pages remain public but are marked noindex while awaiting editorial review. No incident identifiers, addresses or individual records are published here.
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