Generated evidence · pending editorial review

West Lawn: All categories · 06:00–12:00 — Graffiti requests

All categories · 06:00–12:00

City source retrieved November 6, 2026 · scan evaluated November 9, 2026 · frequency change

Current dashboard records may have been revised. Analyze is a separate action there. Saved-for-review choices stay in this browser and do not endorse a result.

12-month frequency comparison

October 2024–September 2025
291
October 2025–September 2026
152
Change in monthly mean
-11.58

The two windows each contain 12 complete covered months. The magnitude of the change is 1.91-fold. These are published requests, not a population-adjusted rate. Fixed windows do not establish a breakpoint, remove all seasonal effects or prove a renewal explanation.

Saved observations and fitted phases

Phase suggestions withheld: serial pattern remains in the candidate fits. Manual boundaries can explore, not confirm, a change.

Fixed six-log-cycle frame · 120 calendar months · factors per six months. Raw zeros stay zero; confirmed zeros become one only for log-space fitting and diagnostics. Missing coverage remains unavailable.

Monthly graffiti removal requests on a standard celeration chartCity of Chicago published records. Fixed six-decade count scale, 120 calendar months, celeration per 6 months. Zero markers are unconnected below the plot. Exact counts and coverage are available in the data table. Analyze: suggested. Phase suggestions withheld: serial pattern remains in the candidate fits. Manual boundaries can explore, not confirm, a change. See the phase results table for dates, factors and uncertainty.1510501005001,0005,00010,00050,000100,000500,0001,000,000Requests per monthSingle-trend reference: 2019-01–2026-09Feb 2019: 2Mar 2019: 6Apr 2019: 7May 2019: 8Jun 2019: 29Jul 2019: 36Aug 2019: 21Sep 2019: 26Oct 2019: 55Nov 2019: 24Dec 2019: 20Jan 2020: 15Feb 2020: 33Mar 2020: 32Apr 2020: 19May 2020: 21Jun 2020: 21Jul 2020: 42Aug 2020: 20Sep 2020: 25Oct 2020: 18Nov 2020: 44Dec 2020: 20Jan 2021: 52Feb 2021: 46Mar 2021: 61Apr 2021: 49May 2021: 35Jun 2021: 40Jul 2021: 46Aug 2021: 52Sep 2021: 47Oct 2021: 23Nov 2021: 26Dec 2021: 9Jan 2022: 34Feb 2022: 23Mar 2022: 38Apr 2022: 17May 2022: 20Jun 2022: 32Jul 2022: 26Aug 2022: 26Sep 2022: 17Oct 2022: 11Nov 2022: 18Dec 2022: 34Jan 2023: 35Feb 2023: 43Mar 2023: 89Apr 2023: 64May 2023: 62Jun 2023: 29Jul 2023: 43Aug 2023: 36Sep 2023: 47Oct 2023: 47Nov 2023: 33Dec 2023: 25Jan 2024: 24Feb 2024: 66Mar 2024: 43Apr 2024: 47May 2024: 53Jun 2024: 36Jul 2024: 42Aug 2024: 19Sep 2024: 28Oct 2024: 22Nov 2024: 26Dec 2024: 25Jan 2025: 19Feb 2025: 47Mar 2025: 18Apr 2025: 31May 2025: 29Jun 2025: 18Jul 2025: 23Aug 2025: 17Sep 2025: 16Oct 2025: 10Nov 2025: 5Dec 2025: 4Jan 2026: 14Feb 2026: 8Mar 2026: 13Apr 2026: 9May 2026: 30Jun 2026: 14Jul 2026: 17Aug 2026: 11Sep 2026: 17ZeroUnknownJan 2019: zero requests; not connected?Oct 2016: missing?Nov 2016: missing?Dec 2016: missing?Jan 2017: missing?Feb 2017: missing?Mar 2017: missing?Apr 2017: missing?May 2017: missing?Jun 2017: missing?Jul 2017: missing?Aug 2017: missing?Sep 2017: missing?Oct 2017: missing?Nov 2017: missing?Dec 2017: missing?Jan 2018: missing?Feb 2018: missing?Mar 2018: missing?Apr 2018: missing?May 2018: missing?Jun 2018: missing?Jul 2018: missing?Aug 2018: missing?Sep 2018: missing?Oct 2018: missing?Nov 2018: missing?Dec 2018: missingOct 2016Oct 2017Oct 2018Oct 2019Oct 2020Oct 2021Oct 2022Oct 2023Oct 2024Oct 2025Oct 2026Calendar months

Single-trend reference · exploratory · per six months

  1. 1 · Jan 2019–Sep 2026×1.00Direction uncertain (serial pattern) · 1 zero fitted as 1

Check the evidence

Interpretation and limitations (14)
  • Exploratory description, not a forecast, causal explanation or proof of a change.
  • Approximate 95% factor intervals assume independent, constant-variance log residuals and fixed boundaries. They do not account for boundary search, serial dependence or source revisions.
  • Confirmed zeros are treated as 1 only for fitting and its diagnostics. Raw counts stay zero; low-count results depend on this convention.
  • Independent phase lines may jump at boundaries. Every observation belongs to exactly one phase.
  • Reporting, classifications and seasonality can change. Counts are not population-adjusted; a level shift without a slope change is not the target of this search.
  • Uses dated last-good cached data, not newly verified source counts.
  • 1 confirmed zero fitted as 1; raw counts remain zero. Low-count trends are sensitive to this adjustment.
  • The best candidate failed the residual-independence diagnostic. A single-trend reference is shown instead; this does not establish a stable trend.
  • Serial pattern in residuals: independence is doubtful; the reported intervals may be too narrow. Seasonality is not modeled.
  • At least one factor interval includes 1; its direction is uncertain under this approximation.
  • 311 status is its value at retrieval, not at request creation. Newer cohorts have had less time to close; Open/Canceled comparisons can reflect workflow or cohort age rather than changing request volume.
  • Current-system 311 coverage starts in 2019. Early phases may reflect adoption/reporting ramp-up; request counts are not completed work or incident prevalence.
  • Many dependent filter conditions were searched. No multiple-testing-adjusted significance or causal attribution is claimed.
  • Frequency compares fixed equal-length windows of raw counts, not population risk or a celeration-factor ratio. Reporting, classifications and exposure may have changed.
Phase diagnostics

Intervals assume fixed boundaries and independent log residuals. They are not adjusted for the phase or filter search. Near-optimal boundary ranges are not confidence intervals.

Saved phase results
PhaseStart–endMonthsFactor / six monthsConditional 95% intervalZeros fitted as 1Lag-one residual
1January 2019–September 202693×10.9656–1.03610.624
Exact monthly observations (120 slots)

Newest first. Unknown coverage is not a zero. These are the original saved observations, not fitted or rounded predictions.

Raw monthly requests
MonthRaw countCoverage
September 202617complete
August 202611complete
July 202617complete
June 202614complete
May 202630complete
April 20269complete
March 202613complete
February 20268complete
January 202614complete
December 20254complete
November 20255complete
October 202510complete
September 202516complete
August 202517complete
July 202523complete
June 202518complete
May 202529complete
April 202531complete
March 202518complete
February 202547complete
January 202519complete
December 202425complete
November 202426complete
October 202422complete
September 202428complete
August 202419complete
July 202442complete
June 202436complete
May 202453complete
April 202447complete
March 202443complete
February 202466complete
January 202424complete
December 202325complete
November 202333complete
October 202347complete
September 202347complete
August 202336complete
July 202343complete
June 202329complete
May 202362complete
April 202364complete
March 202389complete
February 202343complete
January 202335complete
December 202234complete
November 202218complete
October 202211complete
September 202217complete
August 202226complete
July 202226complete
June 202232complete
May 202220complete
April 202217complete
March 202238complete
February 202223complete
January 202234complete
December 20219complete
November 202126complete
October 202123complete
September 202147complete
August 202152complete
July 202146complete
June 202140complete
May 202135complete
April 202149complete
March 202161complete
February 202146complete
January 202152complete
December 202020complete
November 202044complete
October 202018complete
September 202025complete
August 202020complete
July 202042complete
June 202021complete
May 202021complete
April 202019complete
March 202032complete
February 202033complete
January 202015complete
December 201920complete
November 201924complete
October 201955complete
September 201926complete
August 201921complete
July 201936complete
June 201929complete
May 20198complete
April 20197complete
March 20196complete
February 20192complete
January 20190complete
December 2018Unavailablemissing
November 2018Unavailablemissing
October 2018Unavailablemissing
September 2018Unavailablemissing
August 2018Unavailablemissing
July 2018Unavailablemissing
June 2018Unavailablemissing
May 2018Unavailablemissing
April 2018Unavailablemissing
March 2018Unavailablemissing
February 2018Unavailablemissing
January 2018Unavailablemissing
December 2017Unavailablemissing
November 2017Unavailablemissing
October 2017Unavailablemissing
September 2017Unavailablemissing
August 2017Unavailablemissing
July 2017Unavailablemissing
June 2017Unavailablemissing
May 2017Unavailablemissing
April 2017Unavailablemissing
March 2017Unavailablemissing
February 2017Unavailablemissing
January 2017Unavailablemissing
December 2016Unavailablemissing
November 2016Unavailablemissing
October 2016Unavailablemissing
Source and reproducibility
Publisher dataset
311 Service Requests · City of Chicago
Source retrieved
2026-11-06T12:10:53.153Z
Publisher update
2026-11-06T11:22:56.000Z
Covered months
January 2019–September 2026
Source note
Source v6vf-nfxy. Joint day/category/hour/applicable-flag/ward/status counts; no addresses, coordinates or incident identifiers. Each year's cells reconcile with an independent source total. Reads are not an atomic publisher snapshot. Current 311 system only, legacy_record=false; includes duplicate requests, not completed work. Status is as currently published, grouped by creation date—not historical status or completion date. Prepared daily community-area snapshot; scheduled rebuild at 06:00 America/Chicago. Full supported history is rechecked for corrections. Retrieval timestamps are preserved; this is not a real-time feed. Local indexed neighborhood snapshot. Totals are for the loaded area before other filters, not citywide totals. Citywide and unassigned-area views use a separate network-backed scope.
Snapshot
daily-v1:f761b44d-f9db-4d57-b536-48aea9b60f93:neighborhood-v2:9b0f917d88d10259c4c31ae302b43fe8
Discovery method
multi-feed-turn-and-frequency-renewal-v2
Analyze method
exploratory-segmented-log10-ols-zero-as-one-v3
Search plan
a3ffccedeb8d8ce18a30df3636839f775af1e5188e55a1f685695133135c6e35
Evidence run
6f3357f2c2bc1d169e870beb3d94d9612846ee9cc145615bed0232f9a168fbaa

Challenge the pattern

Check unfiltered totals, comparable communities, source revisions and administrative definitions before treating this candidate as evidence of a real-world explanation. Only explicitly documented follow-ups above have been performed; no others are implied by the ranking. Browse the other graffiti requests candidates or review the complete screening method.