Generated evidence · pending editorial review

Rogers Park: All categories · 06:00–12:00 — Graffiti requests

All categories · 06:00–12:00

City source retrieved November 6, 2026 · scan evaluated November 9, 2026 · celeration turn + frequency change

Current dashboard records may have been revised. Analyze is a separate action there. Saved-for-review choices stay in this browser and do not endorse a result.

12-month frequency comparison

October 2024–September 2025
366
October 2025–September 2026
197
Change in monthly mean
-14.08

The two windows each contain 12 complete covered months. The magnitude of the change is 1.86-fold. These are published requests, not a population-adjusted rate. Fixed windows do not establish a breakpoint, remove all seasonal effects or prove a renewal explanation.

Celeration turns: changes between fitted phases

A factor describes a standardized six-month multiplier, not a count. These turns passed the scan’s volume and magnitude gates; phase selection remains exploratory.

  • Suggested boundary January 2020: ×8.18 → ÷1.09 per six months; 8.9× change between factors. Adjacent raw phase totals: 496 and 3,345. The fitted slope signs reverse.

Saved observations and fitted phases

Suggested 2-phase description — exploratory, not confirmed.

Fixed six-log-cycle frame · 120 calendar months · factors per six months. Raw zeros stay zero; confirmed zeros become one only for log-space fitting and diagnostics. Missing coverage remains unavailable.

Monthly graffiti removal requests on a standard celeration chartCity of Chicago published records. Fixed six-decade count scale, 120 calendar months, celeration per 6 months. Zero markers are unconnected below the plot. Exact counts and coverage are available in the data table. Analyze: suggested. Suggested 2-phase description — exploratory, not confirmed. See the phase results table for dates, factors and uncertainty.1510501005001,0005,00010,00050,000100,000500,0001,000,000Requests per monthsuggested phase 1: 2019-01–2019-12suggested phase 2: 2020-01–2026-09Mar 2019: 17Apr 2019: 12May 2019: 17Jun 2019: 68Jul 2019: 71Aug 2019: 57Sep 2019: 84Oct 2019: 22Nov 2019: 92Dec 2019: 56Jan 2020: 74Feb 2020: 34Mar 2020: 57Apr 2020: 51May 2020: 23Jun 2020: 53Jul 2020: 101Aug 2020: 85Sep 2020: 103Oct 2020: 29Nov 2020: 27Dec 2020: 227Jan 2021: 107Feb 2021: 3Mar 2021: 40Apr 2021: 115May 2021: 36Jun 2021: 77Jul 2021: 29Aug 2021: 80Sep 2021: 86Oct 2021: 9Nov 2021: 25Dec 2021: 17Jan 2022: 64Feb 2022: 15Mar 2022: 73Apr 2022: 49May 2022: 61Jun 2022: 35Jul 2022: 24Aug 2022: 91Sep 2022: 44Oct 2022: 36Nov 2022: 24Dec 2022: 16Jan 2023: 23Feb 2023: 17Mar 2023: 51Apr 2023: 52May 2023: 25Jun 2023: 31Jul 2023: 35Aug 2023: 22Sep 2023: 28Oct 2023: 39Nov 2023: 47Dec 2023: 18Jan 2024: 24Feb 2024: 34Mar 2024: 49Apr 2024: 40May 2024: 27Jun 2024: 74Jul 2024: 60Aug 2024: 36Sep 2024: 30Oct 2024: 36Nov 2024: 18Dec 2024: 44Jan 2025: 51Feb 2025: 44Mar 2025: 33Apr 2025: 22May 2025: 37Jun 2025: 11Jul 2025: 37Aug 2025: 21Sep 2025: 12Oct 2025: 18Nov 2025: 16Dec 2025: 9Jan 2026: 12Feb 2026: 24Mar 2026: 10Apr 2026: 13May 2026: 28Jun 2026: 22Jul 2026: 15Aug 2026: 16Sep 2026: 14ZeroUnknownJan 2019: zero requests; not connectedFeb 2019: zero requests; not connected?Oct 2016: missing?Nov 2016: missing?Dec 2016: missing?Jan 2017: missing?Feb 2017: missing?Mar 2017: missing?Apr 2017: missing?May 2017: missing?Jun 2017: missing?Jul 2017: missing?Aug 2017: missing?Sep 2017: missing?Oct 2017: missing?Nov 2017: missing?Dec 2017: missing?Jan 2018: missing?Feb 2018: missing?Mar 2018: missing?Apr 2018: missing?May 2018: missing?Jun 2018: missing?Jul 2018: missing?Aug 2018: missing?Sep 2018: missing?Oct 2018: missing?Nov 2018: missing?Dec 2018: missingOct 2016Oct 2017Oct 2018Oct 2019Oct 2020Oct 2021Oct 2022Oct 2023Oct 2024Oct 2025Oct 2026Calendar months

Suggested phases · exploratory · per six months

  1. 1 · Jan 2019–Dec 2019×8.18Fitted increase · 2 zeros fitted as 1
  2. 2 · Jan 2020–Sep 2026÷1.09Fitted decrease

Check the evidence

Interpretation and limitations (13)
  • Exploratory description, not a forecast, causal explanation or proof of a change.
  • Approximate 95% factor intervals assume independent, constant-variance log residuals and fixed boundaries. They do not account for boundary search, serial dependence or source revisions.
  • Confirmed zeros are treated as 1 only for fitting and its diagnostics. Raw counts stay zero; low-count results depend on this convention.
  • Independent phase lines may jump at boundaries. Every observation belongs to exactly one phase.
  • Reporting, classifications and seasonality can change. Counts are not population-adjusted; a level shift without a slope change is not the target of this search.
  • Uses dated last-good cached data, not newly verified source counts.
  • 2 confirmed zeros fitted as 1; raw counts remain zero. Low-count trends are sensitive to this adjustment.
  • Boundary ranges show near-optimal models within 2 BIC units, not confidence intervals. They can be narrow even when the model is uncertain.
  • A phase is at the minimum allowed length; its boundary may be sensitive to that search limit.
  • 311 status is its value at retrieval, not at request creation. Newer cohorts have had less time to close; Open/Canceled comparisons can reflect workflow or cohort age rather than changing request volume.
  • Current-system 311 coverage starts in 2019. Early phases may reflect adoption/reporting ramp-up; request counts are not completed work or incident prevalence.
  • Many dependent filter conditions were searched. No multiple-testing-adjusted significance or causal attribution is claimed.
  • Frequency compares fixed equal-length windows of raw counts, not population risk or a celeration-factor ratio. Reporting, classifications and exposure may have changed.
Phase diagnostics

Intervals assume fixed boundaries and independent log residuals. They are not adjusted for the phase or filter search. Near-optimal boundary ranges are not confidence intervals.

Saved phase results
PhaseStart–endMonthsFactor / six monthsConditional 95% intervalZeros fitted as 1Lag-one residual
1January 2019–December 201912×8.182.627–25.4720.262
2January 2020–September 202681÷1.090.8857–0.953800.006

Near-optimal boundary range: January 2020–February 2020.

Exact monthly observations (120 slots)

Newest first. Unknown coverage is not a zero. These are the original saved observations, not fitted or rounded predictions.

Raw monthly requests
MonthRaw countCoverage
September 202614complete
August 202616complete
July 202615complete
June 202622complete
May 202628complete
April 202613complete
March 202610complete
February 202624complete
January 202612complete
December 20259complete
November 202516complete
October 202518complete
September 202512complete
August 202521complete
July 202537complete
June 202511complete
May 202537complete
April 202522complete
March 202533complete
February 202544complete
January 202551complete
December 202444complete
November 202418complete
October 202436complete
September 202430complete
August 202436complete
July 202460complete
June 202474complete
May 202427complete
April 202440complete
March 202449complete
February 202434complete
January 202424complete
December 202318complete
November 202347complete
October 202339complete
September 202328complete
August 202322complete
July 202335complete
June 202331complete
May 202325complete
April 202352complete
March 202351complete
February 202317complete
January 202323complete
December 202216complete
November 202224complete
October 202236complete
September 202244complete
August 202291complete
July 202224complete
June 202235complete
May 202261complete
April 202249complete
March 202273complete
February 202215complete
January 202264complete
December 202117complete
November 202125complete
October 20219complete
September 202186complete
August 202180complete
July 202129complete
June 202177complete
May 202136complete
April 2021115complete
March 202140complete
February 20213complete
January 2021107complete
December 2020227complete
November 202027complete
October 202029complete
September 2020103complete
August 202085complete
July 2020101complete
June 202053complete
May 202023complete
April 202051complete
March 202057complete
February 202034complete
January 202074complete
December 201956complete
November 201992complete
October 201922complete
September 201984complete
August 201957complete
July 201971complete
June 201968complete
May 201917complete
April 201912complete
March 201917complete
February 20190complete
January 20190complete
December 2018Unavailablemissing
November 2018Unavailablemissing
October 2018Unavailablemissing
September 2018Unavailablemissing
August 2018Unavailablemissing
July 2018Unavailablemissing
June 2018Unavailablemissing
May 2018Unavailablemissing
April 2018Unavailablemissing
March 2018Unavailablemissing
February 2018Unavailablemissing
January 2018Unavailablemissing
December 2017Unavailablemissing
November 2017Unavailablemissing
October 2017Unavailablemissing
September 2017Unavailablemissing
August 2017Unavailablemissing
July 2017Unavailablemissing
June 2017Unavailablemissing
May 2017Unavailablemissing
April 2017Unavailablemissing
March 2017Unavailablemissing
February 2017Unavailablemissing
January 2017Unavailablemissing
December 2016Unavailablemissing
November 2016Unavailablemissing
October 2016Unavailablemissing
Source and reproducibility
Publisher dataset
311 Service Requests · City of Chicago
Source retrieved
2026-11-06T12:10:53.153Z
Publisher update
2026-11-06T11:22:56.000Z
Covered months
January 2019–September 2026
Source note
Source v6vf-nfxy. Joint day/category/hour/applicable-flag/ward/status counts; no addresses, coordinates or incident identifiers. Each year's cells reconcile with an independent source total. Reads are not an atomic publisher snapshot. Current 311 system only, legacy_record=false; includes duplicate requests, not completed work. Status is as currently published, grouped by creation date—not historical status or completion date. Prepared daily community-area snapshot; scheduled rebuild at 06:00 America/Chicago. Full supported history is rechecked for corrections. Retrieval timestamps are preserved; this is not a real-time feed. Local indexed neighborhood snapshot. Totals are for the loaded area before other filters, not citywide totals. Citywide and unassigned-area views use a separate network-backed scope.
Snapshot
daily-v1:f761b44d-f9db-4d57-b536-48aea9b60f93:neighborhood-v2:d51796843d7e255630be5dc7ea174ad7
Discovery method
multi-feed-turn-and-frequency-renewal-v2
Analyze method
exploratory-segmented-log10-ols-zero-as-one-v3
Search plan
a3ffccedeb8d8ce18a30df3636839f775af1e5188e55a1f685695133135c6e35
Evidence run
39d6373d0ed07bfdcd2b35a1fb620ea1524533561f9dbf8df2aba3cc5493db8f

Challenge the pattern

Check unfiltered totals, comparable communities, source revisions and administrative definitions before treating this candidate as evidence of a real-world explanation. Only explicitly documented follow-ups above have been performed; no others are implied by the ranking. Browse the other graffiti requests candidates or review the complete screening method.