Generated evidence · pending editorial review

Lincoln Square: All categories · Status: Completed — Graffiti requests

All categories · Status: Completed

City source retrieved November 6, 2026 · scan evaluated November 9, 2026 · celeration turn

Current dashboard records may have been revised. Analyze is a separate action there. Saved-for-review choices stay in this browser and do not endorse a result.

Celeration turns: changes between fitted phases

A factor describes a standardized six-month multiplier, not a count. These turns passed the scan’s volume and magnitude gates; phase selection remains exploratory.

  • Suggested boundary February 2020: ×4.79 → ÷1.03 per six months; 4.96× change between factors. Adjacent raw phase totals: 1,791 and 9,146. The fitted slope signs reverse.

Saved observations and fitted phases

Suggested 2-phase description — exploratory, not confirmed.

Fixed six-log-cycle frame · 120 calendar months · factors per six months. Raw zeros stay zero; confirmed zeros become one only for log-space fitting and diagnostics. Missing coverage remains unavailable.

Monthly graffiti removal requests on a standard celeration chartCity of Chicago published records. Fixed six-decade count scale, 120 calendar months, celeration per 6 months. Zero markers are unconnected below the plot. Exact counts and coverage are available in the data table. Analyze: suggested. Suggested 2-phase description — exploratory, not confirmed. See the phase results table for dates, factors and uncertainty.1510501005001,0005,00010,00050,000100,000500,0001,000,000Requests per monthsuggested phase 1: 2019-01–2020-01suggested phase 2: 2020-02–2026-09Jan 2019: 1Feb 2019: 25Mar 2019: 77Apr 2019: 79May 2019: 70Jun 2019: 287Jul 2019: 156Aug 2019: 250Sep 2019: 189Oct 2019: 101Nov 2019: 125Dec 2019: 178Jan 2020: 253Feb 2020: 159Mar 2020: 210Apr 2020: 130May 2020: 186Jun 2020: 185Jul 2020: 187Aug 2020: 142Sep 2020: 283Oct 2020: 75Nov 2020: 109Dec 2020: 421Jan 2021: 118Feb 2021: 39Mar 2021: 99Apr 2021: 199May 2021: 146Jun 2021: 164Jul 2021: 180Aug 2021: 128Sep 2021: 103Oct 2021: 102Nov 2021: 126Dec 2021: 85Jan 2022: 121Feb 2022: 48Mar 2022: 178Apr 2022: 90May 2022: 91Jun 2022: 78Jul 2022: 117Aug 2022: 166Sep 2022: 126Oct 2022: 109Nov 2022: 133Dec 2022: 114Jan 2023: 90Feb 2023: 66Mar 2023: 59Apr 2023: 105May 2023: 92Jun 2023: 71Jul 2023: 72Aug 2023: 82Sep 2023: 37Oct 2023: 63Nov 2023: 91Dec 2023: 42Jan 2024: 53Feb 2024: 55Mar 2024: 128Apr 2024: 97May 2024: 66Jun 2024: 100Jul 2024: 120Aug 2024: 166Sep 2024: 86Oct 2024: 64Nov 2024: 61Dec 2024: 113Jan 2025: 72Feb 2025: 82Mar 2025: 85Apr 2025: 82May 2025: 104Jun 2025: 107Jul 2025: 100Aug 2025: 89Sep 2025: 107Oct 2025: 131Nov 2025: 153Dec 2025: 104Jan 2026: 91Feb 2026: 102Mar 2026: 144Apr 2026: 111May 2026: 128Jun 2026: 133Jul 2026: 103Aug 2026: 80Sep 2026: 112ZeroUnknown?Oct 2016: missing?Nov 2016: missing?Dec 2016: missing?Jan 2017: missing?Feb 2017: missing?Mar 2017: missing?Apr 2017: missing?May 2017: missing?Jun 2017: missing?Jul 2017: missing?Aug 2017: missing?Sep 2017: missing?Oct 2017: missing?Nov 2017: missing?Dec 2017: missing?Jan 2018: missing?Feb 2018: missing?Mar 2018: missing?Apr 2018: missing?May 2018: missing?Jun 2018: missing?Jul 2018: missing?Aug 2018: missing?Sep 2018: missing?Oct 2018: missing?Nov 2018: missing?Dec 2018: missingOct 2016Oct 2017Oct 2018Oct 2019Oct 2020Oct 2021Oct 2022Oct 2023Oct 2024Oct 2025Oct 2026Calendar months

Suggested phases · exploratory · per six months

  1. 1 · Jan 2019–Jan 2020×4.79Fitted increase
  2. 2 · Feb 2020–Sep 2026÷1.03Fitted decrease

Check the evidence

Interpretation and limitations (11)
  • Exploratory description, not a forecast, causal explanation or proof of a change.
  • Approximate 95% factor intervals assume independent, constant-variance log residuals and fixed boundaries. They do not account for boundary search, serial dependence or source revisions.
  • Confirmed zeros are treated as 1 only for fitting and its diagnostics. Raw counts stay zero; low-count results depend on this convention.
  • Independent phase lines may jump at boundaries. Every observation belongs to exactly one phase.
  • Reporting, classifications and seasonality can change. Counts are not population-adjusted; a level shift without a slope change is not the target of this search.
  • Uses dated last-good cached data, not newly verified source counts.
  • Boundary ranges show near-optimal models within 2 BIC units, not confidence intervals. They can be narrow even when the model is uncertain.
  • 311 status is its value at retrieval, not at request creation. Newer cohorts have had less time to close; Open/Canceled comparisons can reflect workflow or cohort age rather than changing request volume.
  • Current-system 311 coverage starts in 2019. Early phases may reflect adoption/reporting ramp-up; request counts are not completed work or incident prevalence.
  • Many dependent filter conditions were searched. No multiple-testing-adjusted significance or causal attribution is claimed.
  • Frequency compares fixed equal-length windows of raw counts, not population risk or a celeration-factor ratio. Reporting, classifications and exposure may have changed.
Phase diagnostics

Intervals assume fixed boundaries and independent log residuals. They are not adjusted for the phase or filter search. Near-optimal boundary ranges are not confidence intervals.

Saved phase results
PhaseStart–endMonthsFactor / six monthsConditional 95% intervalZeros fitted as 1Lag-one residual
1January 2019–January 202013×4.791.562–14.7100.257
2February 2020–September 202680÷1.030.9434–0.989900.274

Near-optimal boundary range: January 2020–February 2020.

Exact monthly observations (120 slots)

Newest first. Unknown coverage is not a zero. These are the original saved observations, not fitted or rounded predictions.

Raw monthly requests
MonthRaw countCoverage
September 2026112complete
August 202680complete
July 2026103complete
June 2026133complete
May 2026128complete
April 2026111complete
March 2026144complete
February 2026102complete
January 202691complete
December 2025104complete
November 2025153complete
October 2025131complete
September 2025107complete
August 202589complete
July 2025100complete
June 2025107complete
May 2025104complete
April 202582complete
March 202585complete
February 202582complete
January 202572complete
December 2024113complete
November 202461complete
October 202464complete
September 202486complete
August 2024166complete
July 2024120complete
June 2024100complete
May 202466complete
April 202497complete
March 2024128complete
February 202455complete
January 202453complete
December 202342complete
November 202391complete
October 202363complete
September 202337complete
August 202382complete
July 202372complete
June 202371complete
May 202392complete
April 2023105complete
March 202359complete
February 202366complete
January 202390complete
December 2022114complete
November 2022133complete
October 2022109complete
September 2022126complete
August 2022166complete
July 2022117complete
June 202278complete
May 202291complete
April 202290complete
March 2022178complete
February 202248complete
January 2022121complete
December 202185complete
November 2021126complete
October 2021102complete
September 2021103complete
August 2021128complete
July 2021180complete
June 2021164complete
May 2021146complete
April 2021199complete
March 202199complete
February 202139complete
January 2021118complete
December 2020421complete
November 2020109complete
October 202075complete
September 2020283complete
August 2020142complete
July 2020187complete
June 2020185complete
May 2020186complete
April 2020130complete
March 2020210complete
February 2020159complete
January 2020253complete
December 2019178complete
November 2019125complete
October 2019101complete
September 2019189complete
August 2019250complete
July 2019156complete
June 2019287complete
May 201970complete
April 201979complete
March 201977complete
February 201925complete
January 20191complete
December 2018Unavailablemissing
November 2018Unavailablemissing
October 2018Unavailablemissing
September 2018Unavailablemissing
August 2018Unavailablemissing
July 2018Unavailablemissing
June 2018Unavailablemissing
May 2018Unavailablemissing
April 2018Unavailablemissing
March 2018Unavailablemissing
February 2018Unavailablemissing
January 2018Unavailablemissing
December 2017Unavailablemissing
November 2017Unavailablemissing
October 2017Unavailablemissing
September 2017Unavailablemissing
August 2017Unavailablemissing
July 2017Unavailablemissing
June 2017Unavailablemissing
May 2017Unavailablemissing
April 2017Unavailablemissing
March 2017Unavailablemissing
February 2017Unavailablemissing
January 2017Unavailablemissing
December 2016Unavailablemissing
November 2016Unavailablemissing
October 2016Unavailablemissing
Source and reproducibility
Publisher dataset
311 Service Requests · City of Chicago
Source retrieved
2026-11-06T12:10:53.153Z
Publisher update
2026-11-06T11:22:56.000Z
Covered months
January 2019–September 2026
Source note
Source v6vf-nfxy. Joint day/category/hour/applicable-flag/ward/status counts; no addresses, coordinates or incident identifiers. Each year's cells reconcile with an independent source total. Reads are not an atomic publisher snapshot. Current 311 system only, legacy_record=false; includes duplicate requests, not completed work. Status is as currently published, grouped by creation date—not historical status or completion date. Prepared daily community-area snapshot; scheduled rebuild at 06:00 America/Chicago. Full supported history is rechecked for corrections. Retrieval timestamps are preserved; this is not a real-time feed. Local indexed neighborhood snapshot. Totals are for the loaded area before other filters, not citywide totals. Citywide and unassigned-area views use a separate network-backed scope.
Snapshot
daily-v1:f761b44d-f9db-4d57-b536-48aea9b60f93:neighborhood-v2:4ef713ec8a6dba3971f8c3136aa3783f
Discovery method
multi-feed-turn-and-frequency-renewal-v2
Analyze method
exploratory-segmented-log10-ols-zero-as-one-v3
Search plan
a3ffccedeb8d8ce18a30df3636839f775af1e5188e55a1f685695133135c6e35
Evidence run
bade772515f348e431b81443b0923ee1e41a2f07270a1d6c7741f2ad8bb8a9de

Challenge the pattern

Check unfiltered totals, comparable communities, source revisions and administrative definitions before treating this candidate as evidence of a real-world explanation. Only explicitly documented follow-ups above have been performed; no others are implied by the ranking. Browse the other graffiti requests candidates or review the complete screening method.