Generated evidence · pending editorial review

Lincoln Square: All categories · 18:00–24:00 — Graffiti requests

All categories · 18:00–24:00

City source retrieved November 6, 2026 · scan evaluated November 9, 2026 · frequency change

Current dashboard records may have been revised. Analyze is a separate action there. Saved-for-review choices stay in this browser and do not endorse a result.

12-month frequency comparison

October 2024–September 2025
174
October 2025–September 2026
478
Change in monthly mean
+25.33

The two windows each contain 12 complete covered months. The magnitude of the change is 2.75-fold. These are published requests, not a population-adjusted rate. Fixed windows do not establish a breakpoint, remove all seasonal effects or prove a renewal explanation.

Saved observations and fitted phases

No clear change in celeration under this rule. This does not mean counts were constant.

Fixed six-log-cycle frame · 120 calendar months · factors per six months. Raw zeros stay zero; confirmed zeros become one only for log-space fitting and diagnostics. Missing coverage remains unavailable.

Monthly graffiti removal requests on a standard celeration chartCity of Chicago published records. Fixed six-decade count scale, 120 calendar months, celeration per 6 months. Zero markers are unconnected below the plot. Exact counts and coverage are available in the data table. Analyze: suggested. No clear change in celeration under this rule. This does not mean counts were constant. See the phase results table for dates, factors and uncertainty.1510501005001,0005,00010,00050,000100,000500,0001,000,000Requests per monthsuggested phase 1: 2019-01–2026-09Feb 2019: 1Mar 2019: 13Apr 2019: 14May 2019: 10Jun 2019: 10Jul 2019: 14Aug 2019: 11Sep 2019: 9Oct 2019: 10Nov 2019: 1Dec 2019: 4Jan 2020: 7Feb 2020: 2Mar 2020: 6Apr 2020: 8May 2020: 2Jun 2020: 14Jul 2020: 11Aug 2020: 21Sep 2020: 24Oct 2020: 3Nov 2020: 4Dec 2020: 5Jan 2021: 5Feb 2021: 6Mar 2021: 4Apr 2021: 16May 2021: 18Jun 2021: 17Jul 2021: 24Aug 2021: 11Sep 2021: 14Oct 2021: 15Nov 2021: 8Dec 2021: 13Jan 2022: 1Feb 2022: 6Mar 2022: 31Apr 2022: 10May 2022: 6Jun 2022: 9Jul 2022: 10Aug 2022: 16Sep 2022: 10Oct 2022: 7Nov 2022: 6Dec 2022: 13Jan 2023: 8Feb 2023: 6Mar 2023: 5Apr 2023: 10May 2023: 7Jun 2023: 11Jul 2023: 12Aug 2023: 10Sep 2023: 3Oct 2023: 10Nov 2023: 5Dec 2023: 2Jan 2024: 2Feb 2024: 4Mar 2024: 5Apr 2024: 10May 2024: 11Jun 2024: 11Jul 2024: 11Aug 2024: 24Sep 2024: 16Oct 2024: 5Nov 2024: 12Dec 2024: 28Jan 2025: 7Feb 2025: 9Mar 2025: 17Apr 2025: 12May 2025: 20Jun 2025: 15Jul 2025: 13Aug 2025: 19Sep 2025: 17Oct 2025: 11Nov 2025: 44Dec 2025: 50Jan 2026: 36Feb 2026: 52Mar 2026: 83Apr 2026: 41May 2026: 33Jun 2026: 43Jul 2026: 40Aug 2026: 19Sep 2026: 26ZeroUnknownJan 2019: zero requests; not connected?Oct 2016: missing?Nov 2016: missing?Dec 2016: missing?Jan 2017: missing?Feb 2017: missing?Mar 2017: missing?Apr 2017: missing?May 2017: missing?Jun 2017: missing?Jul 2017: missing?Aug 2017: missing?Sep 2017: missing?Oct 2017: missing?Nov 2017: missing?Dec 2017: missing?Jan 2018: missing?Feb 2018: missing?Mar 2018: missing?Apr 2018: missing?May 2018: missing?Jun 2018: missing?Jul 2018: missing?Aug 2018: missing?Sep 2018: missing?Oct 2018: missing?Nov 2018: missing?Dec 2018: missingOct 2016Oct 2017Oct 2018Oct 2019Oct 2020Oct 2021Oct 2022Oct 2023Oct 2024Oct 2025Oct 2026Calendar months

Suggested trend · exploratory · per six months

  1. 1 · Jan 2019–Sep 2026×1.10Direction uncertain (serial pattern) · 1 zero fitted as 1

Check the evidence

Interpretation and limitations (12)
  • Exploratory description, not a forecast, causal explanation or proof of a change.
  • Approximate 95% factor intervals assume independent, constant-variance log residuals and fixed boundaries. They do not account for boundary search, serial dependence or source revisions.
  • Confirmed zeros are treated as 1 only for fitting and its diagnostics. Raw counts stay zero; low-count results depend on this convention.
  • Independent phase lines may jump at boundaries. Every observation belongs to exactly one phase.
  • Reporting, classifications and seasonality can change. Counts are not population-adjusted; a level shift without a slope change is not the target of this search.
  • Uses dated last-good cached data, not newly verified source counts.
  • 1 confirmed zero fitted as 1; raw counts remain zero. Low-count trends are sensitive to this adjustment.
  • Serial pattern in residuals: independence is doubtful; the reported intervals may be too narrow. Seasonality is not modeled.
  • 311 status is its value at retrieval, not at request creation. Newer cohorts have had less time to close; Open/Canceled comparisons can reflect workflow or cohort age rather than changing request volume.
  • Current-system 311 coverage starts in 2019. Early phases may reflect adoption/reporting ramp-up; request counts are not completed work or incident prevalence.
  • Many dependent filter conditions were searched. No multiple-testing-adjusted significance or causal attribution is claimed.
  • Frequency compares fixed equal-length windows of raw counts, not population risk or a celeration-factor ratio. Reporting, classifications and exposure may have changed.
Phase diagnostics

Intervals assume fixed boundaries and independent log residuals. They are not adjusted for the phase or filter search. Near-optimal boundary ranges are not confidence intervals.

Saved phase results
PhaseStart–endMonthsFactor / six monthsConditional 95% intervalZeros fitted as 1Lag-one residual
1January 2019–September 202693×1.11.064–1.14610.411
Exact monthly observations (120 slots)

Newest first. Unknown coverage is not a zero. These are the original saved observations, not fitted or rounded predictions.

Raw monthly requests
MonthRaw countCoverage
September 202626complete
August 202619complete
July 202640complete
June 202643complete
May 202633complete
April 202641complete
March 202683complete
February 202652complete
January 202636complete
December 202550complete
November 202544complete
October 202511complete
September 202517complete
August 202519complete
July 202513complete
June 202515complete
May 202520complete
April 202512complete
March 202517complete
February 20259complete
January 20257complete
December 202428complete
November 202412complete
October 20245complete
September 202416complete
August 202424complete
July 202411complete
June 202411complete
May 202411complete
April 202410complete
March 20245complete
February 20244complete
January 20242complete
December 20232complete
November 20235complete
October 202310complete
September 20233complete
August 202310complete
July 202312complete
June 202311complete
May 20237complete
April 202310complete
March 20235complete
February 20236complete
January 20238complete
December 202213complete
November 20226complete
October 20227complete
September 202210complete
August 202216complete
July 202210complete
June 20229complete
May 20226complete
April 202210complete
March 202231complete
February 20226complete
January 20221complete
December 202113complete
November 20218complete
October 202115complete
September 202114complete
August 202111complete
July 202124complete
June 202117complete
May 202118complete
April 202116complete
March 20214complete
February 20216complete
January 20215complete
December 20205complete
November 20204complete
October 20203complete
September 202024complete
August 202021complete
July 202011complete
June 202014complete
May 20202complete
April 20208complete
March 20206complete
February 20202complete
January 20207complete
December 20194complete
November 20191complete
October 201910complete
September 20199complete
August 201911complete
July 201914complete
June 201910complete
May 201910complete
April 201914complete
March 201913complete
February 20191complete
January 20190complete
December 2018Unavailablemissing
November 2018Unavailablemissing
October 2018Unavailablemissing
September 2018Unavailablemissing
August 2018Unavailablemissing
July 2018Unavailablemissing
June 2018Unavailablemissing
May 2018Unavailablemissing
April 2018Unavailablemissing
March 2018Unavailablemissing
February 2018Unavailablemissing
January 2018Unavailablemissing
December 2017Unavailablemissing
November 2017Unavailablemissing
October 2017Unavailablemissing
September 2017Unavailablemissing
August 2017Unavailablemissing
July 2017Unavailablemissing
June 2017Unavailablemissing
May 2017Unavailablemissing
April 2017Unavailablemissing
March 2017Unavailablemissing
February 2017Unavailablemissing
January 2017Unavailablemissing
December 2016Unavailablemissing
November 2016Unavailablemissing
October 2016Unavailablemissing
Source and reproducibility
Publisher dataset
311 Service Requests · City of Chicago
Source retrieved
2026-11-06T12:10:53.153Z
Publisher update
2026-11-06T11:22:56.000Z
Covered months
January 2019–September 2026
Source note
Source v6vf-nfxy. Joint day/category/hour/applicable-flag/ward/status counts; no addresses, coordinates or incident identifiers. Each year's cells reconcile with an independent source total. Reads are not an atomic publisher snapshot. Current 311 system only, legacy_record=false; includes duplicate requests, not completed work. Status is as currently published, grouped by creation date—not historical status or completion date. Prepared daily community-area snapshot; scheduled rebuild at 06:00 America/Chicago. Full supported history is rechecked for corrections. Retrieval timestamps are preserved; this is not a real-time feed. Local indexed neighborhood snapshot. Totals are for the loaded area before other filters, not citywide totals. Citywide and unassigned-area views use a separate network-backed scope.
Snapshot
daily-v1:f761b44d-f9db-4d57-b536-48aea9b60f93:neighborhood-v2:4ef713ec8a6dba3971f8c3136aa3783f
Discovery method
multi-feed-turn-and-frequency-renewal-v2
Analyze method
exploratory-segmented-log10-ols-zero-as-one-v3
Search plan
a3ffccedeb8d8ce18a30df3636839f775af1e5188e55a1f685695133135c6e35
Evidence run
bade772515f348e431b81443b0923ee1e41a2f07270a1d6c7741f2ad8bb8a9de

Challenge the pattern

Check unfiltered totals, comparable communities, source revisions and administrative definitions before treating this candidate as evidence of a real-world explanation. Only explicitly documented follow-ups above have been performed; no others are implied by the ranking. Browse the other graffiti requests candidates or review the complete screening method.