Generated evidence · pending editorial review

Clearing: All categories — Graffiti requests

All categories · all other available filters

City source retrieved November 6, 2026 · scan evaluated November 9, 2026 · celeration turn

Current dashboard records may have been revised. Analyze is a separate action there. Saved-for-review choices stay in this browser and do not endorse a result.

Celeration turns: changes between fitted phases

A factor describes a standardized six-month multiplier, not a count. These turns passed the scan’s volume and magnitude gates; phase selection remains exploratory.

  • Suggested boundary January 2020: ×4.25 → ×1.02 per six months; 4.16× change between factors. Adjacent raw phase totals: 172 and 1,645. The fitted slope changes without reversing sign.

Saved observations and fitted phases

Suggested 2-phase description — exploratory, not confirmed.

Fixed six-log-cycle frame · 120 calendar months · factors per six months. Raw zeros stay zero; confirmed zeros become one only for log-space fitting and diagnostics. Missing coverage remains unavailable.

Monthly graffiti removal requests on a standard celeration chartCity of Chicago published records. Fixed six-decade count scale, 120 calendar months, celeration per 6 months. Zero markers are unconnected below the plot. Exact counts and coverage are available in the data table. Analyze: suggested. Suggested 2-phase description — exploratory, not confirmed. See the phase results table for dates, factors and uncertainty.1510501005001,0005,00010,00050,000100,000500,0001,000,000Requests per monthsuggested phase 1: 2019-01–2019-12suggested phase 2: 2020-01–2026-09Mar 2019: 18Apr 2019: 8May 2019: 3Jun 2019: 5Jul 2019: 30Aug 2019: 22Sep 2019: 39Oct 2019: 17Nov 2019: 10Dec 2019: 20Jan 2020: 9Feb 2020: 19Mar 2020: 38Apr 2020: 22May 2020: 37Jun 2020: 4Jul 2020: 21Aug 2020: 5Sep 2020: 12Oct 2020: 12Nov 2020: 23Dec 2020: 28Jan 2021: 27Feb 2021: 44Mar 2021: 37Apr 2021: 26May 2021: 19Jun 2021: 24Jul 2021: 4Aug 2021: 9Sep 2021: 5Oct 2021: 16Nov 2021: 18Dec 2021: 13Jan 2022: 19Feb 2022: 9Mar 2022: 20Apr 2022: 25May 2022: 9Jun 2022: 28Jul 2022: 12Aug 2022: 23Sep 2022: 20Oct 2022: 41Nov 2022: 20Dec 2022: 20Jan 2023: 23Feb 2023: 16Mar 2023: 13Apr 2023: 17May 2023: 19Jun 2023: 27Jul 2023: 26Aug 2023: 10Sep 2023: 28Oct 2023: 12Nov 2023: 13Dec 2023: 12Jan 2024: 11Feb 2024: 13Mar 2024: 23Apr 2024: 41May 2024: 12Jun 2024: 16Jul 2024: 15Aug 2024: 26Sep 2024: 20Oct 2024: 22Nov 2024: 32Dec 2024: 18Jan 2025: 25Feb 2025: 26Mar 2025: 47Apr 2025: 31May 2025: 20Jun 2025: 15Jul 2025: 13Aug 2025: 17Sep 2025: 12Oct 2025: 26Nov 2025: 21Dec 2025: 15Jan 2026: 15Feb 2026: 18Mar 2026: 14Apr 2026: 28May 2026: 22Jun 2026: 29Jul 2026: 13Aug 2026: 25Sep 2026: 30ZeroUnknownJan 2019: zero requests; not connectedFeb 2019: zero requests; not connected?Oct 2016: missing?Nov 2016: missing?Dec 2016: missing?Jan 2017: missing?Feb 2017: missing?Mar 2017: missing?Apr 2017: missing?May 2017: missing?Jun 2017: missing?Jul 2017: missing?Aug 2017: missing?Sep 2017: missing?Oct 2017: missing?Nov 2017: missing?Dec 2017: missing?Jan 2018: missing?Feb 2018: missing?Mar 2018: missing?Apr 2018: missing?May 2018: missing?Jun 2018: missing?Jul 2018: missing?Aug 2018: missing?Sep 2018: missing?Oct 2018: missing?Nov 2018: missing?Dec 2018: missingOct 2016Oct 2017Oct 2018Oct 2019Oct 2020Oct 2021Oct 2022Oct 2023Oct 2024Oct 2025Oct 2026Calendar months

Suggested phases · exploratory · per six months

  1. 1 · Jan 2019–Dec 2019×4.25Fitted increase · 2 zeros fitted as 1
  2. 2 · Jan 2020–Sep 2026×1.02Direction uncertain

Check the evidence

Interpretation and limitations (14)
  • Exploratory description, not a forecast, causal explanation or proof of a change.
  • Approximate 95% factor intervals assume independent, constant-variance log residuals and fixed boundaries. They do not account for boundary search, serial dependence or source revisions.
  • Confirmed zeros are treated as 1 only for fitting and its diagnostics. Raw counts stay zero; low-count results depend on this convention.
  • Independent phase lines may jump at boundaries. Every observation belongs to exactly one phase.
  • Reporting, classifications and seasonality can change. Counts are not population-adjusted; a level shift without a slope change is not the target of this search.
  • Uses dated last-good cached data, not newly verified source counts.
  • 2 confirmed zeros fitted as 1; raw counts remain zero. Low-count trends are sensitive to this adjustment.
  • Boundary ranges show near-optimal models within 2 BIC units, not confidence intervals. They can be narrow even when the model is uncertain.
  • A phase is at the minimum allowed length; its boundary may be sensitive to that search limit.
  • At least one factor interval includes 1; its direction is uncertain under this approximation.
  • 311 status is its value at retrieval, not at request creation. Newer cohorts have had less time to close; Open/Canceled comparisons can reflect workflow or cohort age rather than changing request volume.
  • Current-system 311 coverage starts in 2019. Early phases may reflect adoption/reporting ramp-up; request counts are not completed work or incident prevalence.
  • Many dependent filter conditions were searched. No multiple-testing-adjusted significance or causal attribution is claimed.
  • Frequency compares fixed equal-length windows of raw counts, not population risk or a celeration-factor ratio. Reporting, classifications and exposure may have changed.
Phase diagnostics

Intervals assume fixed boundaries and independent log residuals. They are not adjusted for the phase or filter search. Near-optimal boundary ranges are not confidence intervals.

Saved phase results
PhaseStart–endMonthsFactor / six monthsConditional 95% intervalZeros fitted as 1Lag-one residual
1January 2019–December 201912×4.251.487–12.1520.124
2January 2020–September 202681×1.020.9925–1.05300.132

Near-optimal boundary range: January 2020–June 2020.

Exact monthly observations (120 slots)

Newest first. Unknown coverage is not a zero. These are the original saved observations, not fitted or rounded predictions.

Raw monthly requests
MonthRaw countCoverage
September 202630complete
August 202625complete
July 202613complete
June 202629complete
May 202622complete
April 202628complete
March 202614complete
February 202618complete
January 202615complete
December 202515complete
November 202521complete
October 202526complete
September 202512complete
August 202517complete
July 202513complete
June 202515complete
May 202520complete
April 202531complete
March 202547complete
February 202526complete
January 202525complete
December 202418complete
November 202432complete
October 202422complete
September 202420complete
August 202426complete
July 202415complete
June 202416complete
May 202412complete
April 202441complete
March 202423complete
February 202413complete
January 202411complete
December 202312complete
November 202313complete
October 202312complete
September 202328complete
August 202310complete
July 202326complete
June 202327complete
May 202319complete
April 202317complete
March 202313complete
February 202316complete
January 202323complete
December 202220complete
November 202220complete
October 202241complete
September 202220complete
August 202223complete
July 202212complete
June 202228complete
May 20229complete
April 202225complete
March 202220complete
February 20229complete
January 202219complete
December 202113complete
November 202118complete
October 202116complete
September 20215complete
August 20219complete
July 20214complete
June 202124complete
May 202119complete
April 202126complete
March 202137complete
February 202144complete
January 202127complete
December 202028complete
November 202023complete
October 202012complete
September 202012complete
August 20205complete
July 202021complete
June 20204complete
May 202037complete
April 202022complete
March 202038complete
February 202019complete
January 20209complete
December 201920complete
November 201910complete
October 201917complete
September 201939complete
August 201922complete
July 201930complete
June 20195complete
May 20193complete
April 20198complete
March 201918complete
February 20190complete
January 20190complete
December 2018Unavailablemissing
November 2018Unavailablemissing
October 2018Unavailablemissing
September 2018Unavailablemissing
August 2018Unavailablemissing
July 2018Unavailablemissing
June 2018Unavailablemissing
May 2018Unavailablemissing
April 2018Unavailablemissing
March 2018Unavailablemissing
February 2018Unavailablemissing
January 2018Unavailablemissing
December 2017Unavailablemissing
November 2017Unavailablemissing
October 2017Unavailablemissing
September 2017Unavailablemissing
August 2017Unavailablemissing
July 2017Unavailablemissing
June 2017Unavailablemissing
May 2017Unavailablemissing
April 2017Unavailablemissing
March 2017Unavailablemissing
February 2017Unavailablemissing
January 2017Unavailablemissing
December 2016Unavailablemissing
November 2016Unavailablemissing
October 2016Unavailablemissing
Source and reproducibility
Publisher dataset
311 Service Requests · City of Chicago
Source retrieved
2026-11-06T12:10:53.153Z
Publisher update
2026-11-06T11:22:56.000Z
Covered months
January 2019–September 2026
Source note
Source v6vf-nfxy. Joint day/category/hour/applicable-flag/ward/status counts; no addresses, coordinates or incident identifiers. Each year's cells reconcile with an independent source total. Reads are not an atomic publisher snapshot. Current 311 system only, legacy_record=false; includes duplicate requests, not completed work. Status is as currently published, grouped by creation date—not historical status or completion date. Prepared daily community-area snapshot; scheduled rebuild at 06:00 America/Chicago. Full supported history is rechecked for corrections. Retrieval timestamps are preserved; this is not a real-time feed. Local indexed neighborhood snapshot. Totals are for the loaded area before other filters, not citywide totals. Citywide and unassigned-area views use a separate network-backed scope.
Snapshot
daily-v1:f761b44d-f9db-4d57-b536-48aea9b60f93:neighborhood-v2:835edf4d5dbd7dd2362c939589c193af
Discovery method
multi-feed-turn-and-frequency-renewal-v2
Analyze method
exploratory-segmented-log10-ols-zero-as-one-v3
Search plan
a3ffccedeb8d8ce18a30df3636839f775af1e5188e55a1f685695133135c6e35
Evidence run
7e0b3f9c302aef63f7c449f4cb726b54f85cdf2a8b997eb6ebb8c5dca28a6957

Challenge the pattern

Check unfiltered totals, comparable communities, source revisions and administrative definitions before treating this candidate as evidence of a real-world explanation. Only explicitly documented follow-ups above have been performed; no others are implied by the ranking. Browse the other graffiti requests candidates or review the complete screening method.