Generated evidence · pending editorial review
Bridgeport: All categories · 12:00–18:00 — Graffiti requests
All categories · 12:00–18:00
Celeration turns: changes between fitted phases
A factor describes a standardized six-month multiplier, not a count. These turns passed the scan’s volume and magnitude gates; phase selection remains exploratory.
- Suggested boundary January 2020: ×6.47 → ÷1.23 per six months; 7.97× change between factors. Adjacent raw phase totals: 456 and 1,560. The fitted slope signs reverse.
Saved observations and fitted phases
Suggested 3-phase description — exploratory, not confirmed.
Suggested phases · exploratory · per six months
- 1 · Jan 2019–Dec 2019×6.47Fitted increase · 1 zero fitted as 1
- 2 · Jan 2020–May 2022÷1.23Fitted decrease
- 3 · Jun 2022–Sep 2026×1.03Direction uncertain
Check the evidence
Interpretation and limitations (14)
- Exploratory description, not a forecast, causal explanation or proof of a change.
- Approximate 95% factor intervals assume independent, constant-variance log residuals and fixed boundaries. They do not account for boundary search, serial dependence or source revisions.
- Confirmed zeros are treated as 1 only for fitting and its diagnostics. Raw counts stay zero; low-count results depend on this convention.
- Independent phase lines may jump at boundaries. Every observation belongs to exactly one phase.
- Reporting, classifications and seasonality can change. Counts are not population-adjusted; a level shift without a slope change is not the target of this search.
- Uses dated last-good cached data, not newly verified source counts.
- 1 confirmed zero fitted as 1; raw counts remain zero. Low-count trends are sensitive to this adjustment.
- Boundary ranges show near-optimal models within 2 BIC units, not confidence intervals. They can be narrow even when the model is uncertain.
- A phase is at the minimum allowed length; its boundary may be sensitive to that search limit.
- At least one factor interval includes 1; its direction is uncertain under this approximation.
- 311 status is its value at retrieval, not at request creation. Newer cohorts have had less time to close; Open/Canceled comparisons can reflect workflow or cohort age rather than changing request volume.
- Current-system 311 coverage starts in 2019. Early phases may reflect adoption/reporting ramp-up; request counts are not completed work or incident prevalence.
- Many dependent filter conditions were searched. No multiple-testing-adjusted significance or causal attribution is claimed.
- Frequency compares fixed equal-length windows of raw counts, not population risk or a celeration-factor ratio. Reporting, classifications and exposure may have changed.
Phase diagnostics
| Phase | Start–end | Months | Factor / six months | Conditional 95% interval | Zeros fitted as 1 | Lag-one residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | January 2019–December 2019 | 12 | ×6.47 | 2.017–20.72 | 1 | 0.247 |
| 2 | January 2020–May 2022 | 29 | ÷1.23 | 0.7220–0.9104 | 0 | 0.234 |
| 3 | June 2022–September 2026 | 52 | ×1.03 | 0.9953–1.072 | 0 | 0.078 |
Exact monthly observations (120 slots)
| Month | Raw count | Coverage |
|---|---|---|
| September 2026 | 54 | complete |
| August 2026 | 76 | complete |
| July 2026 | 77 | complete |
| June 2026 | 44 | complete |
| May 2026 | 58 | complete |
| April 2026 | 61 | complete |
| March 2026 | 85 | complete |
| February 2026 | 68 | complete |
| January 2026 | 61 | complete |
| December 2025 | 70 | complete |
| November 2025 | 48 | complete |
| October 2025 | 95 | complete |
| September 2025 | 74 | complete |
| August 2025 | 74 | complete |
| July 2025 | 48 | complete |
| June 2025 | 73 | complete |
| May 2025 | 68 | complete |
| April 2025 | 72 | complete |
| March 2025 | 60 | complete |
| February 2025 | 66 | complete |
| January 2025 | 107 | complete |
| December 2024 | 86 | complete |
| November 2024 | 90 | complete |
| October 2024 | 81 | complete |
| September 2024 | 48 | complete |
| August 2024 | 112 | complete |
| July 2024 | 99 | complete |
| June 2024 | 89 | complete |
| May 2024 | 52 | complete |
| April 2024 | 114 | complete |
| March 2024 | 73 | complete |
| February 2024 | 35 | complete |
| January 2024 | 74 | complete |
| December 2023 | 76 | complete |
| November 2023 | 58 | complete |
| October 2023 | 70 | complete |
| September 2023 | 41 | complete |
| August 2023 | 117 | complete |
| July 2023 | 46 | complete |
| June 2023 | 45 | complete |
| May 2023 | 26 | complete |
| April 2023 | 43 | complete |
| March 2023 | 29 | complete |
| February 2023 | 55 | complete |
| January 2023 | 78 | complete |
| December 2022 | 63 | complete |
| November 2022 | 52 | complete |
| October 2022 | 89 | complete |
| September 2022 | 60 | complete |
| August 2022 | 51 | complete |
| July 2022 | 39 | complete |
| June 2022 | 63 | complete |
| May 2022 | 28 | complete |
| April 2022 | 18 | complete |
| March 2022 | 24 | complete |
| February 2022 | 25 | complete |
| January 2022 | 23 | complete |
| December 2021 | 45 | complete |
| November 2021 | 48 | complete |
| October 2021 | 47 | complete |
| September 2021 | 66 | complete |
| August 2021 | 50 | complete |
| July 2021 | 71 | complete |
| June 2021 | 46 | complete |
| May 2021 | 45 | complete |
| April 2021 | 46 | complete |
| March 2021 | 49 | complete |
| February 2021 | 17 | complete |
| January 2021 | 65 | complete |
| December 2020 | 25 | complete |
| November 2020 | 61 | complete |
| October 2020 | 67 | complete |
| September 2020 | 135 | complete |
| August 2020 | 134 | complete |
| July 2020 | 60 | complete |
| June 2020 | 58 | complete |
| May 2020 | 61 | complete |
| April 2020 | 63 | complete |
| March 2020 | 80 | complete |
| February 2020 | 53 | complete |
| January 2020 | 50 | complete |
| December 2019 | 50 | complete |
| November 2019 | 60 | complete |
| October 2019 | 90 | complete |
| September 2019 | 49 | complete |
| August 2019 | 33 | complete |
| July 2019 | 39 | complete |
| June 2019 | 39 | complete |
| May 2019 | 27 | complete |
| April 2019 | 27 | complete |
| March 2019 | 41 | complete |
| February 2019 | 1 | complete |
| January 2019 | 0 | complete |
| December 2018 | Unavailable | missing |
| November 2018 | Unavailable | missing |
| October 2018 | Unavailable | missing |
| September 2018 | Unavailable | missing |
| August 2018 | Unavailable | missing |
| July 2018 | Unavailable | missing |
| June 2018 | Unavailable | missing |
| May 2018 | Unavailable | missing |
| April 2018 | Unavailable | missing |
| March 2018 | Unavailable | missing |
| February 2018 | Unavailable | missing |
| January 2018 | Unavailable | missing |
| December 2017 | Unavailable | missing |
| November 2017 | Unavailable | missing |
| October 2017 | Unavailable | missing |
| September 2017 | Unavailable | missing |
| August 2017 | Unavailable | missing |
| July 2017 | Unavailable | missing |
| June 2017 | Unavailable | missing |
| May 2017 | Unavailable | missing |
| April 2017 | Unavailable | missing |
| March 2017 | Unavailable | missing |
| February 2017 | Unavailable | missing |
| January 2017 | Unavailable | missing |
| December 2016 | Unavailable | missing |
| November 2016 | Unavailable | missing |
| October 2016 | Unavailable | missing |
Source and reproducibility
- Publisher dataset
- 311 Service Requests · City of Chicago
- Source retrieved
- 2026-11-06T12:10:53.153Z
- Publisher update
- 2026-11-06T11:22:56.000Z
- Covered months
- January 2019–September 2026
- Source note
- Source v6vf-nfxy. Joint day/category/hour/applicable-flag/ward/status counts; no addresses, coordinates or incident identifiers. Each year's cells reconcile with an independent source total. Reads are not an atomic publisher snapshot. Current 311 system only, legacy_record=false; includes duplicate requests, not completed work. Status is as currently published, grouped by creation date—not historical status or completion date. Prepared daily community-area snapshot; scheduled rebuild at 06:00 America/Chicago. Full supported history is rechecked for corrections. Retrieval timestamps are preserved; this is not a real-time feed. Local indexed neighborhood snapshot. Totals are for the loaded area before other filters, not citywide totals. Citywide and unassigned-area views use a separate network-backed scope.
- Snapshot
- daily-v1:f761b44d-f9db-4d57-b536-48aea9b60f93:neighborhood-v2:2476ddede4b209bcc1719c2e3c816248
- Discovery method
- multi-feed-turn-and-frequency-renewal-v2
- Analyze method
- exploratory-segmented-log10-ols-zero-as-one-v3
- Search plan
- a3ffccedeb8d8ce18a30df3636839f775af1e5188e55a1f685695133135c6e35
- Evidence run
- 9c52e1bc816eda4801179479f92b73e878435068aa5b7de80c1ecfcf02f50acf
Challenge the pattern
Check unfiltered totals, comparable communities, source revisions and administrative definitions before treating this candidate as evidence of a real-world explanation. Only explicitly documented follow-ups above have been performed; no others are implied by the ranking. Browse the other graffiti requests candidates or review the complete screening method.