Generated evidence · pending editorial review

Austin: All categories · 06:00–12:00 — Graffiti requests

All categories · 06:00–12:00

City source retrieved November 6, 2026 · scan evaluated November 9, 2026 · celeration turn

Current dashboard records may have been revised. Analyze is a separate action there. Saved-for-review choices stay in this browser and do not endorse a result.

Celeration turns: changes between fitted phases

A factor describes a standardized six-month multiplier, not a count. These turns passed the scan’s volume and magnitude gates; phase selection remains exploratory.

  • Suggested boundary January 2020: ×6.15 → ×1.03 per six months; 6× change between factors. Adjacent raw phase totals: 287 and 1,552. The fitted slope changes without reversing sign.

Saved observations and fitted phases

Suggested 3-phase description — exploratory, not confirmed.

Fixed six-log-cycle frame · 120 calendar months · factors per six months. Raw zeros stay zero; confirmed zeros become one only for log-space fitting and diagnostics. Missing coverage remains unavailable.

Monthly graffiti removal requests on a standard celeration chartCity of Chicago published records. Fixed six-decade count scale, 120 calendar months, celeration per 6 months. Zero markers are unconnected below the plot. Exact counts and coverage are available in the data table. Analyze: suggested. Suggested 3-phase description — exploratory, not confirmed. See the phase results table for dates, factors and uncertainty.1510501005001,0005,00010,00050,000100,000500,0001,000,000Requests per monthsuggested phase 1: 2019-01–2019-12suggested phase 2: 2020-01–2023-02suggested phase 3: 2023-03–2026-09Mar 2019: 17Apr 2019: 9May 2019: 8Jun 2019: 27Jul 2019: 51Aug 2019: 21Sep 2019: 40Oct 2019: 28Nov 2019: 62Dec 2019: 24Jan 2020: 38Feb 2020: 24Mar 2020: 24Apr 2020: 68May 2020: 93Jun 2020: 33Jul 2020: 22Aug 2020: 24Sep 2020: 40Oct 2020: 22Nov 2020: 18Dec 2020: 90Jan 2021: 27Feb 2021: 57Mar 2021: 42Apr 2021: 31May 2021: 39Jun 2021: 45Jul 2021: 73Aug 2021: 20Sep 2021: 24Oct 2021: 32Nov 2021: 22Dec 2021: 32Jan 2022: 82Feb 2022: 27Mar 2022: 49Apr 2022: 30May 2022: 24Jun 2022: 31Jul 2022: 44Aug 2022: 40Sep 2022: 86Oct 2022: 46Nov 2022: 41Dec 2022: 37Jan 2023: 40Feb 2023: 35Mar 2023: 100Apr 2023: 66May 2023: 90Jun 2023: 94Jul 2023: 91Aug 2023: 88Sep 2023: 63Oct 2023: 31Nov 2023: 23Dec 2023: 37Jan 2024: 55Feb 2024: 52Mar 2024: 43Apr 2024: 48May 2024: 69Jun 2024: 49Jul 2024: 25Aug 2024: 53Sep 2024: 16Oct 2024: 20Nov 2024: 40Dec 2024: 11Jan 2025: 31Feb 2025: 16Mar 2025: 26Apr 2025: 27May 2025: 39Jun 2025: 28Jul 2025: 48Aug 2025: 16Sep 2025: 31Oct 2025: 53Nov 2025: 28Dec 2025: 26Jan 2026: 28Feb 2026: 12Mar 2026: 11Apr 2026: 31May 2026: 32Jun 2026: 15Jul 2026: 20Aug 2026: 19Sep 2026: 19ZeroUnknownJan 2019: zero requests; not connectedFeb 2019: zero requests; not connected?Oct 2016: missing?Nov 2016: missing?Dec 2016: missing?Jan 2017: missing?Feb 2017: missing?Mar 2017: missing?Apr 2017: missing?May 2017: missing?Jun 2017: missing?Jul 2017: missing?Aug 2017: missing?Sep 2017: missing?Oct 2017: missing?Nov 2017: missing?Dec 2017: missing?Jan 2018: missing?Feb 2018: missing?Mar 2018: missing?Apr 2018: missing?May 2018: missing?Jun 2018: missing?Jul 2018: missing?Aug 2018: missing?Sep 2018: missing?Oct 2018: missing?Nov 2018: missing?Dec 2018: missingOct 2016Oct 2017Oct 2018Oct 2019Oct 2020Oct 2021Oct 2022Oct 2023Oct 2024Oct 2025Oct 2026Calendar months

Suggested phases · exploratory · per six months

  1. 1 · Jan 2019–Dec 2019×6.15Fitted increase · 2 zeros fitted as 1
  2. 2 · Jan 2020–Feb 2023×1.03Direction uncertain
  3. 3 · Mar 2023–Sep 2026÷1.22Fitted decrease

Check the evidence

Interpretation and limitations (14)
  • Exploratory description, not a forecast, causal explanation or proof of a change.
  • Approximate 95% factor intervals assume independent, constant-variance log residuals and fixed boundaries. They do not account for boundary search, serial dependence or source revisions.
  • Confirmed zeros are treated as 1 only for fitting and its diagnostics. Raw counts stay zero; low-count results depend on this convention.
  • Independent phase lines may jump at boundaries. Every observation belongs to exactly one phase.
  • Reporting, classifications and seasonality can change. Counts are not population-adjusted; a level shift without a slope change is not the target of this search.
  • Uses dated last-good cached data, not newly verified source counts.
  • 2 confirmed zeros fitted as 1; raw counts remain zero. Low-count trends are sensitive to this adjustment.
  • Boundary ranges show near-optimal models within 2 BIC units, not confidence intervals. They can be narrow even when the model is uncertain.
  • A phase is at the minimum allowed length; its boundary may be sensitive to that search limit.
  • At least one factor interval includes 1; its direction is uncertain under this approximation.
  • 311 status is its value at retrieval, not at request creation. Newer cohorts have had less time to close; Open/Canceled comparisons can reflect workflow or cohort age rather than changing request volume.
  • Current-system 311 coverage starts in 2019. Early phases may reflect adoption/reporting ramp-up; request counts are not completed work or incident prevalence.
  • Many dependent filter conditions were searched. No multiple-testing-adjusted significance or causal attribution is claimed.
  • Frequency compares fixed equal-length windows of raw counts, not population risk or a celeration-factor ratio. Reporting, classifications and exposure may have changed.
Phase diagnostics

Intervals assume fixed boundaries and independent log residuals. They are not adjusted for the phase or filter search. Near-optimal boundary ranges are not confidence intervals.

Saved phase results
PhaseStart–endMonthsFactor / six monthsConditional 95% intervalZeros fitted as 1Lag-one residual
1January 2019–December 201912×6.152.302–16.4320.061
2January 2020–February 202338×1.030.9460–1.1120-0.009
3March 2023–September 202643÷1.220.7653–0.874500.160

Near-optimal boundary range: January 2020–January 2020.

Near-optimal boundary range: March 2023–March 2023.

Exact monthly observations (120 slots)

Newest first. Unknown coverage is not a zero. These are the original saved observations, not fitted or rounded predictions.

Raw monthly requests
MonthRaw countCoverage
September 202619complete
August 202619complete
July 202620complete
June 202615complete
May 202632complete
April 202631complete
March 202611complete
February 202612complete
January 202628complete
December 202526complete
November 202528complete
October 202553complete
September 202531complete
August 202516complete
July 202548complete
June 202528complete
May 202539complete
April 202527complete
March 202526complete
February 202516complete
January 202531complete
December 202411complete
November 202440complete
October 202420complete
September 202416complete
August 202453complete
July 202425complete
June 202449complete
May 202469complete
April 202448complete
March 202443complete
February 202452complete
January 202455complete
December 202337complete
November 202323complete
October 202331complete
September 202363complete
August 202388complete
July 202391complete
June 202394complete
May 202390complete
April 202366complete
March 2023100complete
February 202335complete
January 202340complete
December 202237complete
November 202241complete
October 202246complete
September 202286complete
August 202240complete
July 202244complete
June 202231complete
May 202224complete
April 202230complete
March 202249complete
February 202227complete
January 202282complete
December 202132complete
November 202122complete
October 202132complete
September 202124complete
August 202120complete
July 202173complete
June 202145complete
May 202139complete
April 202131complete
March 202142complete
February 202157complete
January 202127complete
December 202090complete
November 202018complete
October 202022complete
September 202040complete
August 202024complete
July 202022complete
June 202033complete
May 202093complete
April 202068complete
March 202024complete
February 202024complete
January 202038complete
December 201924complete
November 201962complete
October 201928complete
September 201940complete
August 201921complete
July 201951complete
June 201927complete
May 20198complete
April 20199complete
March 201917complete
February 20190complete
January 20190complete
December 2018Unavailablemissing
November 2018Unavailablemissing
October 2018Unavailablemissing
September 2018Unavailablemissing
August 2018Unavailablemissing
July 2018Unavailablemissing
June 2018Unavailablemissing
May 2018Unavailablemissing
April 2018Unavailablemissing
March 2018Unavailablemissing
February 2018Unavailablemissing
January 2018Unavailablemissing
December 2017Unavailablemissing
November 2017Unavailablemissing
October 2017Unavailablemissing
September 2017Unavailablemissing
August 2017Unavailablemissing
July 2017Unavailablemissing
June 2017Unavailablemissing
May 2017Unavailablemissing
April 2017Unavailablemissing
March 2017Unavailablemissing
February 2017Unavailablemissing
January 2017Unavailablemissing
December 2016Unavailablemissing
November 2016Unavailablemissing
October 2016Unavailablemissing
Source and reproducibility
Publisher dataset
311 Service Requests · City of Chicago
Source retrieved
2026-11-06T12:10:53.153Z
Publisher update
2026-11-06T11:22:56.000Z
Covered months
January 2019–September 2026
Source note
Source v6vf-nfxy. Joint day/category/hour/applicable-flag/ward/status counts; no addresses, coordinates or incident identifiers. Each year's cells reconcile with an independent source total. Reads are not an atomic publisher snapshot. Current 311 system only, legacy_record=false; includes duplicate requests, not completed work. Status is as currently published, grouped by creation date—not historical status or completion date. Prepared daily community-area snapshot; scheduled rebuild at 06:00 America/Chicago. Full supported history is rechecked for corrections. Retrieval timestamps are preserved; this is not a real-time feed. Local indexed neighborhood snapshot. Totals are for the loaded area before other filters, not citywide totals. Citywide and unassigned-area views use a separate network-backed scope.
Snapshot
daily-v1:f761b44d-f9db-4d57-b536-48aea9b60f93:neighborhood-v2:7c38b5f02a76e0cf42a6efce350a97c8
Discovery method
multi-feed-turn-and-frequency-renewal-v2
Analyze method
exploratory-segmented-log10-ols-zero-as-one-v3
Search plan
a3ffccedeb8d8ce18a30df3636839f775af1e5188e55a1f685695133135c6e35
Evidence run
515253d59d75127906477d3d9324aa5015e51d0be9815df28bfeac1017106c08

Challenge the pattern

Check unfiltered totals, comparable communities, source revisions and administrative definitions before treating this candidate as evidence of a real-world explanation. Only explicitly documented follow-ups above have been performed; no others are implied by the ranking. Browse the other graffiti requests candidates or review the complete screening method.