Chart People

Generated evidence · pending editorial review

Loop: CRIMINAL TRESPASS — Crime reports

CRIMINAL TRESPASS · all other available filters

City source retrieved November 5, 2026 · scan evaluated November 9, 2026 · celeration turn

Download exact evidence ↓Open these filters in Chicago Data →

Current dashboard records may have been revised. Analyze is a separate action there. Saved-for-review choices stay in this browser and do not endorse a result.

Celeration turns: changes between fitted phases

A factor describes a standardized six-month multiplier, not a count. These turns passed the scan’s volume and magnitude gates; phase selection remains exploratory.

  • Suggested boundary December 2019: ×1.12 → ÷1.55 per six months; 1.73× change between factors. Adjacent raw phase totals: 925 and 237. The fitted slope signs reverse.
  • Suggested boundary February 2021: ÷1.55 → ×1.06 per six months; 1.64× change between factors. Adjacent raw phase totals: 237 and 1,541. The fitted slope signs reverse.

Saved observations and fitted phases

Suggested 3-phase description — exploratory, not confirmed.

Fixed six-log-cycle frame · 120 calendar months · factors per six months. Raw zeros stay zero; confirmed zeros become one only for log-space fitting and diagnostics. Missing coverage remains unavailable.

Monthly crime reports on a standard celeration chartCity of Chicago published records. Fixed six-decade count scale, 120 calendar months, celeration per 6 months. Zero markers are unconnected below the plot. Exact counts and coverage are available in the data table. Analyze: suggested. Suggested 3-phase description — exploratory, not confirmed. See the phase results table for dates, factors and uncertainty.1510501005001,0005,00010,00050,000100,000500,0001,000,000Reports per monthsuggested phase 1: 2016-10–2019-11suggested phase 2: 2019-12–2021-01suggested phase 3: 2021-02–2026-09Oct 2016: 15Nov 2016: 12Dec 2016: 14Jan 2017: 26Feb 2017: 18Mar 2017: 23Apr 2017: 29May 2017: 15Jun 2017: 20Jul 2017: 22Aug 2017: 20Sep 2017: 15Oct 2017: 13Nov 2017: 24Dec 2017: 23Jan 2018: 26Feb 2018: 29Mar 2018: 35Apr 2018: 16May 2018: 19Jun 2018: 15Jul 2018: 24Aug 2018: 18Sep 2018: 19Oct 2018: 33Nov 2018: 27Dec 2018: 30Jan 2019: 49Feb 2019: 32Mar 2019: 20Apr 2019: 36May 2019: 24Jun 2019: 31Jul 2019: 31Aug 2019: 29Sep 2019: 26Oct 2019: 35Nov 2019: 32Dec 2019: 24Jan 2020: 36Feb 2020: 27Mar 2020: 26Apr 2020: 6May 2020: 16Jun 2020: 9Jul 2020: 16Aug 2020: 13Sep 2020: 20Oct 2020: 15Nov 2020: 7Dec 2020: 11Jan 2021: 11Feb 2021: 12Mar 2021: 14Apr 2021: 19May 2021: 15Jun 2021: 11Jul 2021: 16Aug 2021: 13Sep 2021: 14Oct 2021: 17Nov 2021: 22Dec 2021: 17Jan 2022: 17Feb 2022: 17Mar 2022: 19Apr 2022: 22May 2022: 19Jun 2022: 16Jul 2022: 26Aug 2022: 21Sep 2022: 18Oct 2022: 14Nov 2022: 18Dec 2022: 17Jan 2023: 28Feb 2023: 21Mar 2023: 30Apr 2023: 21May 2023: 11Jun 2023: 18Jul 2023: 14Aug 2023: 27Sep 2023: 16Oct 2023: 15Nov 2023: 22Dec 2023: 25Jan 2024: 20Feb 2024: 25Mar 2024: 26Apr 2024: 21May 2024: 28Jun 2024: 36Jul 2024: 33Aug 2024: 29Sep 2024: 17Oct 2024: 36Nov 2024: 28Dec 2024: 39Jan 2025: 36Feb 2025: 29Mar 2025: 33Apr 2025: 36May 2025: 17Jun 2025: 28Jul 2025: 36Aug 2025: 26Sep 2025: 21Oct 2025: 41Nov 2025: 19Dec 2025: 27Jan 2026: 28Feb 2026: 24Mar 2026: 28Apr 2026: 23May 2026: 22Jun 2026: 24Jul 2026: 22Aug 2026: 20Sep 2026: 21ZeroUnknownOct 2016Oct 2017Oct 2018Oct 2019Oct 2020Oct 2021Oct 2022Oct 2023Oct 2024Oct 2025Oct 2026Calendar months

Suggested phases · exploratory · per six months

  1. 1 · Oct 2016–Nov 2019×1.12Fitted increase
  2. 2 · Dec 2019–Jan 2021÷1.55Fitted decrease
  3. 3 · Feb 2021–Sep 2026×1.06Fitted increase

Check the evidence

Interpretation and limitations (9)
  • Exploratory description, not a forecast, causal explanation or proof of a change.
  • Approximate 95% factor intervals assume independent, constant-variance log residuals and fixed boundaries. They do not account for boundary search, serial dependence or source revisions.
  • Confirmed zeros are treated as 1 only for fitting and its diagnostics. Raw counts stay zero; low-count results depend on this convention.
  • Independent phase lines may jump at boundaries. Every observation belongs to exactly one phase.
  • Reporting, classifications and seasonality can change. Counts are not population-adjusted; a level shift without a slope change is not the target of this search.
  • Uses dated last-good cached data, not newly verified source counts.
  • Boundary ranges show near-optimal models within 2 BIC units, not confidence intervals. They can be narrow even when the model is uncertain.
  • Many dependent filter conditions were searched. No multiple-testing-adjusted significance or causal attribution is claimed.
  • Frequency compares fixed equal-length windows of raw counts, not population risk or a celeration-factor ratio. Reporting, classifications and exposure may have changed.
Phase diagnostics

Intervals assume fixed boundaries and independent log residuals. They are not adjusted for the phase or filter search. Near-optimal boundary ranges are not confidence intervals.

Saved phase results
PhaseStart–endMonthsFactor / six monthsConditional 95% intervalZeros fitted as 1Lag-one residual
1October 2016–November 201938×1.121.063–1.17100.124
2December 2019–January 202114÷1.550.4377–0.95160-0.059
3February 2021–September 202668×1.061.038–1.08000.178

Near-optimal boundary range: January 2019–January 2020.

Near-optimal boundary range: December 2020–April 2021.

Exact monthly observations (120 slots)

Newest first. Unknown coverage is not a zero. These are the original saved observations, not fitted or rounded predictions.

Raw monthly reports
MonthRaw countCoverage
September 202621complete
August 202620complete
July 202622complete
June 202624complete
May 202622complete
April 202623complete
March 202628complete
February 202624complete
January 202628complete
December 202527complete
November 202519complete
October 202541complete
September 202521complete
August 202526complete
July 202536complete
June 202528complete
May 202517complete
April 202536complete
March 202533complete
February 202529complete
January 202536complete
December 202439complete
November 202428complete
October 202436complete
September 202417complete
August 202429complete
July 202433complete
June 202436complete
May 202428complete
April 202421complete
March 202426complete
February 202425complete
January 202420complete
December 202325complete
November 202322complete
October 202315complete
September 202316complete
August 202327complete
July 202314complete
June 202318complete
May 202311complete
April 202321complete
March 202330complete
February 202321complete
January 202328complete
December 202217complete
November 202218complete
October 202214complete
September 202218complete
August 202221complete
July 202226complete
June 202216complete
May 202219complete
April 202222complete
March 202219complete
February 202217complete
January 202217complete
December 202117complete
November 202122complete
October 202117complete
September 202114complete
August 202113complete
July 202116complete
June 202111complete
May 202115complete
April 202119complete
March 202114complete
February 202112complete
January 202111complete
December 202011complete
November 20207complete
October 202015complete
September 202020complete
August 202013complete
July 202016complete
June 20209complete
May 202016complete
April 20206complete
March 202026complete
February 202027complete
January 202036complete
December 201924complete
November 201932complete
October 201935complete
September 201926complete
August 201929complete
July 201931complete
June 201931complete
May 201924complete
April 201936complete
March 201920complete
February 201932complete
January 201949complete
December 201830complete
November 201827complete
October 201833complete
September 201819complete
August 201818complete
July 201824complete
June 201815complete
May 201819complete
April 201816complete
March 201835complete
February 201829complete
January 201826complete
December 201723complete
November 201724complete
October 201713complete
September 201715complete
August 201720complete
July 201722complete
June 201720complete
May 201715complete
April 201729complete
March 201723complete
February 201718complete
January 201726complete
December 201614complete
November 201612complete
October 201615complete
Source and reproducibility
Publisher dataset
Crimes — 2001 to Present · City of Chicago
Source retrieved
2026-11-05T21:08:01.557Z
Publisher update
2026-11-05T12:12:19.000Z
Covered months
October 2016–September 2026
Source note
Source ijzp-q8t2. Joint day/category/hour/applicable-flag/ward/status counts; no addresses, coordinates or incident identifiers. Each year's cells reconcile with an independent source total. Reads are not an atomic publisher snapshot. Published crime reports, not population-adjusted rates or final incidence. Prepared daily community-area snapshot; scheduled rebuild at 06:00 America/Chicago. Full supported history is rechecked for corrections. Retrieval timestamps are preserved; this is not a real-time feed. Crime analysis starts January 1, 2002; 2001 is excluded from counts and fitting inputs. Local indexed neighborhood snapshot. Totals are for the loaded area before other filters, not citywide totals. Citywide and unassigned-area views use a separate network-backed scope.
Snapshot
daily-v1:ef0c5e9b-09d5-4a2d-849e-1be6745dbfbb:neighborhood-v2:417f887a6d33021eed941647f3ac32fb
Discovery method
multi-feed-turn-and-frequency-renewal-v2
Analyze method
exploratory-segmented-log10-ols-zero-as-one-v3
Search plan
a3ffccedeb8d8ce18a30df3636839f775af1e5188e55a1f685695133135c6e35
Evidence run
aa61b346d2d62a9a772de6cc882a9c3d123575e94672d0724a892512e612a2d7

Challenge the pattern

Check unfiltered totals, comparable communities, source revisions and administrative definitions before treating this candidate as evidence of a real-world explanation. Only explicitly documented follow-ups above have been performed; no others are implied by the ranking. Browse the other crime reports candidates or review the complete screening method.