Generated evidence · pending editorial review

Hegewisch: All categories · 00:00–06:00 — Crime reports

All categories · 00:00–06:00

City source retrieved November 5, 2026 · scan evaluated November 9, 2026 · frequency change

Current dashboard records may have been revised. Analyze is a separate action there. Saved-for-review choices stay in this browser and do not endorse a result.

12-month frequency comparison

October 2024–September 2025
145
October 2025–September 2026
219
Change in monthly mean
+6.17

The two windows each contain 12 complete covered months. The magnitude of the change is 1.51-fold. These are published reports, not a population-adjusted rate. Fixed windows do not establish a breakpoint, remove all seasonal effects or prove a renewal explanation.

Saved observations and fitted phases

No clear change in celeration under this rule. This does not mean counts were constant.

Fixed six-log-cycle frame · 120 calendar months · factors per six months. Raw zeros stay zero; confirmed zeros become one only for log-space fitting and diagnostics. Missing coverage remains unavailable.

Monthly crime reports on a standard celeration chartCity of Chicago published records. Fixed six-decade count scale, 120 calendar months, celeration per 6 months. Zero markers are unconnected below the plot. Exact counts and coverage are available in the data table. Analyze: suggested. No clear change in celeration under this rule. This does not mean counts were constant. See the phase results table for dates, factors and uncertainty.1510501005001,0005,00010,00050,000100,000500,0001,000,000Reports per monthsuggested phase 1: 2016-10–2026-09Oct 2016: 12Nov 2016: 7Dec 2016: 8Jan 2017: 17Feb 2017: 12Mar 2017: 8Apr 2017: 7May 2017: 17Jun 2017: 12Jul 2017: 14Aug 2017: 13Sep 2017: 8Oct 2017: 3Nov 2017: 6Dec 2017: 9Jan 2018: 13Feb 2018: 13Mar 2018: 7Apr 2018: 4May 2018: 14Jun 2018: 18Jul 2018: 9Aug 2018: 13Sep 2018: 11Oct 2018: 4Nov 2018: 5Dec 2018: 12Jan 2019: 8Feb 2019: 6Mar 2019: 7Apr 2019: 10May 2019: 6Jun 2019: 10Jul 2019: 6Aug 2019: 9Sep 2019: 6Oct 2019: 10Nov 2019: 7Dec 2019: 4Jan 2020: 13Feb 2020: 10Mar 2020: 10Apr 2020: 12May 2020: 5Jun 2020: 11Jul 2020: 6Aug 2020: 14Sep 2020: 12Oct 2020: 7Nov 2020: 6Dec 2020: 9Jan 2021: 7Feb 2021: 7Mar 2021: 11Apr 2021: 10May 2021: 5Jun 2021: 12Jul 2021: 14Aug 2021: 6Sep 2021: 15Oct 2021: 9Nov 2021: 7Dec 2021: 10Jan 2022: 13Feb 2022: 6Mar 2022: 11Apr 2022: 9May 2022: 14Jun 2022: 12Jul 2022: 17Aug 2022: 5Sep 2022: 11Oct 2022: 10Nov 2022: 8Dec 2022: 9Jan 2023: 11Feb 2023: 6Mar 2023: 7Apr 2023: 7May 2023: 13Jun 2023: 16Jul 2023: 15Aug 2023: 16Sep 2023: 17Oct 2023: 4Nov 2023: 14Dec 2023: 14Jan 2024: 16Feb 2024: 15Mar 2024: 10Apr 2024: 15May 2024: 16Jun 2024: 19Jul 2024: 24Aug 2024: 14Sep 2024: 19Oct 2024: 13Nov 2024: 7Dec 2024: 11Jan 2025: 18Feb 2025: 7Mar 2025: 15Apr 2025: 12May 2025: 8Jun 2025: 25Jul 2025: 15Aug 2025: 6Sep 2025: 8Oct 2025: 38Nov 2025: 21Dec 2025: 10Jan 2026: 16Feb 2026: 32Mar 2026: 14Apr 2026: 11May 2026: 7Jun 2026: 21Jul 2026: 22Aug 2026: 14Sep 2026: 13ZeroUnknownOct 2016Oct 2017Oct 2018Oct 2019Oct 2020Oct 2021Oct 2022Oct 2023Oct 2024Oct 2025Oct 2026Calendar months

Suggested trend · exploratory · per six months

  1. 1 · Oct 2016–Sep 2026×1.03Fitted increase

Check the evidence

Interpretation and limitations (8)
  • Exploratory description, not a forecast, causal explanation or proof of a change.
  • Approximate 95% factor intervals assume independent, constant-variance log residuals and fixed boundaries. They do not account for boundary search, serial dependence or source revisions.
  • Confirmed zeros are treated as 1 only for fitting and its diagnostics. Raw counts stay zero; low-count results depend on this convention.
  • Independent phase lines may jump at boundaries. Every observation belongs to exactly one phase.
  • Reporting, classifications and seasonality can change. Counts are not population-adjusted; a level shift without a slope change is not the target of this search.
  • Uses dated last-good cached data, not newly verified source counts.
  • Many dependent filter conditions were searched. No multiple-testing-adjusted significance or causal attribution is claimed.
  • Frequency compares fixed equal-length windows of raw counts, not population risk or a celeration-factor ratio. Reporting, classifications and exposure may have changed.
Phase diagnostics

Intervals assume fixed boundaries and independent log residuals. They are not adjusted for the phase or filter search. Near-optimal boundary ranges are not confidence intervals.

Saved phase results
PhaseStart–endMonthsFactor / six monthsConditional 95% intervalZeros fitted as 1Lag-one residual
1October 2016–September 2026120×1.031.016–1.04500.071
Exact monthly observations (120 slots)

Newest first. Unknown coverage is not a zero. These are the original saved observations, not fitted or rounded predictions.

Raw monthly reports
MonthRaw countCoverage
September 202613complete
August 202614complete
July 202622complete
June 202621complete
May 20267complete
April 202611complete
March 202614complete
February 202632complete
January 202616complete
December 202510complete
November 202521complete
October 202538complete
September 20258complete
August 20256complete
July 202515complete
June 202525complete
May 20258complete
April 202512complete
March 202515complete
February 20257complete
January 202518complete
December 202411complete
November 20247complete
October 202413complete
September 202419complete
August 202414complete
July 202424complete
June 202419complete
May 202416complete
April 202415complete
March 202410complete
February 202415complete
January 202416complete
December 202314complete
November 202314complete
October 20234complete
September 202317complete
August 202316complete
July 202315complete
June 202316complete
May 202313complete
April 20237complete
March 20237complete
February 20236complete
January 202311complete
December 20229complete
November 20228complete
October 202210complete
September 202211complete
August 20225complete
July 202217complete
June 202212complete
May 202214complete
April 20229complete
March 202211complete
February 20226complete
January 202213complete
December 202110complete
November 20217complete
October 20219complete
September 202115complete
August 20216complete
July 202114complete
June 202112complete
May 20215complete
April 202110complete
March 202111complete
February 20217complete
January 20217complete
December 20209complete
November 20206complete
October 20207complete
September 202012complete
August 202014complete
July 20206complete
June 202011complete
May 20205complete
April 202012complete
March 202010complete
February 202010complete
January 202013complete
December 20194complete
November 20197complete
October 201910complete
September 20196complete
August 20199complete
July 20196complete
June 201910complete
May 20196complete
April 201910complete
March 20197complete
February 20196complete
January 20198complete
December 201812complete
November 20185complete
October 20184complete
September 201811complete
August 201813complete
July 20189complete
June 201818complete
May 201814complete
April 20184complete
March 20187complete
February 201813complete
January 201813complete
December 20179complete
November 20176complete
October 20173complete
September 20178complete
August 201713complete
July 201714complete
June 201712complete
May 201717complete
April 20177complete
March 20178complete
February 201712complete
January 201717complete
December 20168complete
November 20167complete
October 201612complete
Source and reproducibility
Publisher dataset
Crimes — 2001 to Present · City of Chicago
Source retrieved
2026-11-05T21:08:01.557Z
Publisher update
2026-11-05T12:12:19.000Z
Covered months
October 2016–September 2026
Source note
Source ijzp-q8t2. Joint day/category/hour/applicable-flag/ward/status counts; no addresses, coordinates or incident identifiers. Each year's cells reconcile with an independent source total. Reads are not an atomic publisher snapshot. Published crime reports, not population-adjusted rates or final incidence. Prepared daily community-area snapshot; scheduled rebuild at 06:00 America/Chicago. Full supported history is rechecked for corrections. Retrieval timestamps are preserved; this is not a real-time feed. Crime analysis starts January 1, 2002; 2001 is excluded from counts and fitting inputs. Local indexed neighborhood snapshot. Totals are for the loaded area before other filters, not citywide totals. Citywide and unassigned-area views use a separate network-backed scope.
Snapshot
daily-v1:ef0c5e9b-09d5-4a2d-849e-1be6745dbfbb:neighborhood-v2:6d1a5446b404259cdadc31e4db901f1d
Discovery method
multi-feed-turn-and-frequency-renewal-v2
Analyze method
exploratory-segmented-log10-ols-zero-as-one-v3
Search plan
a3ffccedeb8d8ce18a30df3636839f775af1e5188e55a1f685695133135c6e35
Evidence run
7214b308f47052a03bb9e11b839ce89ec4bc86cae08c94e2d9f800b21b40db7c

Challenge the pattern

Check unfiltered totals, comparable communities, source revisions and administrative definitions before treating this candidate as evidence of a real-world explanation. Only explicitly documented follow-ups above have been performed; no others are implied by the ranking. Browse the other crime reports candidates or review the complete screening method.