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Generated evidence · pending editorial review

Edgewater: CRIMINAL TRESPASS — Crime reports

CRIMINAL TRESPASS · all other available filters

City source retrieved November 5, 2026 · scan evaluated November 9, 2026 · celeration turn

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Current dashboard records may have been revised. Analyze is a separate action there. Saved-for-review choices stay in this browser and do not endorse a result.

Celeration turns: changes between fitted phases

A factor describes a standardized six-month multiplier, not a count. These turns passed the scan’s volume and magnitude gates; phase selection remains exploratory.

  • Suggested boundary July 2024: ×1.16 → ÷1.39 per six months; 1.6× change between factors. Adjacent raw phase totals: 280 and 204. The fitted slope signs reverse.

Saved observations and fitted phases

Suggested 3-phase description — exploratory, not confirmed.

Fixed six-log-cycle frame · 120 calendar months · factors per six months. Raw zeros stay zero; confirmed zeros become one only for log-space fitting and diagnostics. Missing coverage remains unavailable.

Monthly crime reports on a standard celeration chartCity of Chicago published records. Fixed six-decade count scale, 120 calendar months, celeration per 6 months. Zero markers are unconnected below the plot. Exact counts and coverage are available in the data table. Analyze: suggested. Suggested 3-phase description — exploratory, not confirmed. See the phase results table for dates, factors and uncertainty.1510501005001,0005,00010,00050,000100,000500,0001,000,000Reports per monthsuggested phase 1: 2016-10–2020-07suggested phase 2: 2020-08–2024-06suggested phase 3: 2024-07–2026-09Oct 2016: 8Nov 2016: 4Dec 2016: 4Jan 2017: 4Feb 2017: 10Mar 2017: 5Apr 2017: 6May 2017: 10Jun 2017: 7Jul 2017: 8Aug 2017: 14Sep 2017: 8Oct 2017: 8Nov 2017: 10Dec 2017: 7Jan 2018: 7Feb 2018: 6Mar 2018: 6Apr 2018: 8May 2018: 11Jun 2018: 16Jul 2018: 9Aug 2018: 16Sep 2018: 7Oct 2018: 13Nov 2018: 8Dec 2018: 6Jan 2019: 10Feb 2019: 6Mar 2019: 5Apr 2019: 9May 2019: 3Jun 2019: 11Jul 2019: 17Aug 2019: 7Sep 2019: 8Oct 2019: 4Nov 2019: 8Dec 2019: 2Jan 2020: 3Feb 2020: 1Mar 2020: 4Apr 2020: 7May 2020: 1Jun 2020: 8Jul 2020: 5Aug 2020: 2Sep 2020: 4Oct 2020: 4Nov 2020: 3Dec 2020: 4Jan 2021: 2Feb 2021: 3Mar 2021: 4Apr 2021: 2May 2021: 5Jun 2021: 5Jul 2021: 4Aug 2021: 7Sep 2021: 3Oct 2021: 2Nov 2021: 11Dec 2021: 6Jan 2022: 2Feb 2022: 4Mar 2022: 7Apr 2022: 10May 2022: 10Jun 2022: 6Jul 2022: 6Aug 2022: 4Sep 2022: 3Oct 2022: 7Nov 2022: 2Dec 2022: 7Jan 2023: 5Feb 2023: 7Mar 2023: 7Apr 2023: 4May 2023: 11Jun 2023: 8Jul 2023: 8Aug 2023: 7Sep 2023: 5Oct 2023: 9Nov 2023: 7Dec 2023: 8Jan 2024: 12Feb 2024: 8Mar 2024: 9Apr 2024: 12May 2024: 7Jun 2024: 7Jul 2024: 15Aug 2024: 14Sep 2024: 9Oct 2024: 8Nov 2024: 12Dec 2024: 7Jan 2025: 6Feb 2025: 11Mar 2025: 11Apr 2025: 11May 2025: 8Jun 2025: 7Jul 2025: 8Aug 2025: 5Sep 2025: 8Oct 2025: 2Nov 2025: 7Dec 2025: 5Jan 2026: 10Feb 2026: 8Mar 2026: 7Apr 2026: 7May 2026: 5Jun 2026: 1Jul 2026: 7Aug 2026: 4Sep 2026: 1ZeroUnknownOct 2016Oct 2017Oct 2018Oct 2019Oct 2020Oct 2021Oct 2022Oct 2023Oct 2024Oct 2025Oct 2026Calendar months

Suggested phases · exploratory · per six months

  1. 1 · Oct 2016–Jul 2020÷1.09Fitted decrease
  2. 2 · Aug 2020–Jun 2024×1.16Fitted increase
  3. 3 · Jul 2024–Sep 2026÷1.39Fitted decrease

Check the evidence

Interpretation and limitations (9)
  • Exploratory description, not a forecast, causal explanation or proof of a change.
  • Approximate 95% factor intervals assume independent, constant-variance log residuals and fixed boundaries. They do not account for boundary search, serial dependence or source revisions.
  • Confirmed zeros are treated as 1 only for fitting and its diagnostics. Raw counts stay zero; low-count results depend on this convention.
  • Independent phase lines may jump at boundaries. Every observation belongs to exactly one phase.
  • Reporting, classifications and seasonality can change. Counts are not population-adjusted; a level shift without a slope change is not the target of this search.
  • Uses dated last-good cached data, not newly verified source counts.
  • Boundary ranges show near-optimal models within 2 BIC units, not confidence intervals. They can be narrow even when the model is uncertain.
  • Many dependent filter conditions were searched. No multiple-testing-adjusted significance or causal attribution is claimed.
  • Frequency compares fixed equal-length windows of raw counts, not population risk or a celeration-factor ratio. Reporting, classifications and exposure may have changed.
Phase diagnostics

Intervals assume fixed boundaries and independent log residuals. They are not adjusted for the phase or filter search. Near-optimal boundary ranges are not confidence intervals.

Saved phase results
PhaseStart–endMonthsFactor / six monthsConditional 95% intervalZeros fitted as 1Lag-one residual
1October 2016–July 202046÷1.090.8507–0.997400.167
2August 2020–June 202447×1.161.095–1.2220-0.080
3July 2024–September 202627÷1.390.6138–0.84860-0.112

Near-optimal boundary range: July 2020–May 2021.

Near-optimal boundary range: June 2024–May 2025.

Exact monthly observations (120 slots)

Newest first. Unknown coverage is not a zero. These are the original saved observations, not fitted or rounded predictions.

Raw monthly reports
MonthRaw countCoverage
September 20261complete
August 20264complete
July 20267complete
June 20261complete
May 20265complete
April 20267complete
March 20267complete
February 20268complete
January 202610complete
December 20255complete
November 20257complete
October 20252complete
September 20258complete
August 20255complete
July 20258complete
June 20257complete
May 20258complete
April 202511complete
March 202511complete
February 202511complete
January 20256complete
December 20247complete
November 202412complete
October 20248complete
September 20249complete
August 202414complete
July 202415complete
June 20247complete
May 20247complete
April 202412complete
March 20249complete
February 20248complete
January 202412complete
December 20238complete
November 20237complete
October 20239complete
September 20235complete
August 20237complete
July 20238complete
June 20238complete
May 202311complete
April 20234complete
March 20237complete
February 20237complete
January 20235complete
December 20227complete
November 20222complete
October 20227complete
September 20223complete
August 20224complete
July 20226complete
June 20226complete
May 202210complete
April 202210complete
March 20227complete
February 20224complete
January 20222complete
December 20216complete
November 202111complete
October 20212complete
September 20213complete
August 20217complete
July 20214complete
June 20215complete
May 20215complete
April 20212complete
March 20214complete
February 20213complete
January 20212complete
December 20204complete
November 20203complete
October 20204complete
September 20204complete
August 20202complete
July 20205complete
June 20208complete
May 20201complete
April 20207complete
March 20204complete
February 20201complete
January 20203complete
December 20192complete
November 20198complete
October 20194complete
September 20198complete
August 20197complete
July 201917complete
June 201911complete
May 20193complete
April 20199complete
March 20195complete
February 20196complete
January 201910complete
December 20186complete
November 20188complete
October 201813complete
September 20187complete
August 201816complete
July 20189complete
June 201816complete
May 201811complete
April 20188complete
March 20186complete
February 20186complete
January 20187complete
December 20177complete
November 201710complete
October 20178complete
September 20178complete
August 201714complete
July 20178complete
June 20177complete
May 201710complete
April 20176complete
March 20175complete
February 201710complete
January 20174complete
December 20164complete
November 20164complete
October 20168complete
Source and reproducibility
Publisher dataset
Crimes — 2001 to Present · City of Chicago
Source retrieved
2026-11-05T21:08:01.557Z
Publisher update
2026-11-05T12:12:19.000Z
Covered months
October 2016–September 2026
Source note
Source ijzp-q8t2. Joint day/category/hour/applicable-flag/ward/status counts; no addresses, coordinates or incident identifiers. Each year's cells reconcile with an independent source total. Reads are not an atomic publisher snapshot. Published crime reports, not population-adjusted rates or final incidence. Prepared daily community-area snapshot; scheduled rebuild at 06:00 America/Chicago. Full supported history is rechecked for corrections. Retrieval timestamps are preserved; this is not a real-time feed. Crime analysis starts January 1, 2002; 2001 is excluded from counts and fitting inputs. Local indexed neighborhood snapshot. Totals are for the loaded area before other filters, not citywide totals. Citywide and unassigned-area views use a separate network-backed scope.
Snapshot
daily-v1:ef0c5e9b-09d5-4a2d-849e-1be6745dbfbb:neighborhood-v2:8d407e5d5e23ffa91c5ed9a62a857f85
Discovery method
multi-feed-turn-and-frequency-renewal-v2
Analyze method
exploratory-segmented-log10-ols-zero-as-one-v3
Search plan
a3ffccedeb8d8ce18a30df3636839f775af1e5188e55a1f685695133135c6e35
Evidence run
328fa5e6fce70cb6c5853605b8080045d3320d01a92b71df6200512e2105e16f

Challenge the pattern

Check unfiltered totals, comparable communities, source revisions and administrative definitions before treating this candidate as evidence of a real-world explanation. Only explicitly documented follow-ups above have been performed; no others are implied by the ranking. Browse the other crime reports candidates or review the complete screening method.