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Generated evidence · pending editorial review

Chicago Lawn: OTHER OFFENSE — Crime reports

OTHER OFFENSE · all other available filters

City source retrieved November 5, 2026 · scan evaluated November 9, 2026 · celeration turn

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Current dashboard records may have been revised. Analyze is a separate action there. Saved-for-review choices stay in this browser and do not endorse a result.

Celeration turns: changes between fitted phases

A factor describes a standardized six-month multiplier, not a count. These turns passed the scan’s volume and magnitude gates; phase selection remains exploratory.

  • Suggested boundary May 2023: ÷1.02 → ×1.47 per six months; 1.5× change between factors. Adjacent raw phase totals: 2,512 and 458. The fitted slope signs reverse.
  • Suggested boundary June 2024: ×1.47 → ÷1.05 per six months; 1.55× change between factors. Adjacent raw phase totals: 458 and 1,052. The fitted slope signs reverse.

Saved observations and fitted phases

Suggested 3-phase description — exploratory, not confirmed.

Fixed six-log-cycle frame · 120 calendar months · factors per six months. Raw zeros stay zero; confirmed zeros become one only for log-space fitting and diagnostics. Missing coverage remains unavailable.

Monthly crime reports on a standard celeration chartCity of Chicago published records. Fixed six-decade count scale, 120 calendar months, celeration per 6 months. Zero markers are unconnected below the plot. Exact counts and coverage are available in the data table. Analyze: suggested. Suggested 3-phase description — exploratory, not confirmed. See the phase results table for dates, factors and uncertainty.1510501005001,0005,00010,00050,000100,000500,0001,000,000Reports per monthsuggested phase 1: 2016-10–2023-04suggested phase 2: 2023-05–2024-05suggested phase 3: 2024-06–2026-09Oct 2016: 30Nov 2016: 29Dec 2016: 40Jan 2017: 46Feb 2017: 41Mar 2017: 35Apr 2017: 48May 2017: 32Jun 2017: 37Jul 2017: 40Aug 2017: 31Sep 2017: 30Oct 2017: 40Nov 2017: 35Dec 2017: 35Jan 2018: 32Feb 2018: 31Mar 2018: 32Apr 2018: 31May 2018: 44Jun 2018: 28Jul 2018: 41Aug 2018: 40Sep 2018: 36Oct 2018: 27Nov 2018: 32Dec 2018: 28Jan 2019: 43Feb 2019: 32Mar 2019: 28Apr 2019: 39May 2019: 34Jun 2019: 26Jul 2019: 32Aug 2019: 33Sep 2019: 41Oct 2019: 33Nov 2019: 25Dec 2019: 34Jan 2020: 31Feb 2020: 31Mar 2020: 24Apr 2020: 18May 2020: 27Jun 2020: 32Jul 2020: 34Aug 2020: 19Sep 2020: 23Oct 2020: 33Nov 2020: 19Dec 2020: 25Jan 2021: 23Feb 2021: 34Mar 2021: 35Apr 2021: 36May 2021: 37Jun 2021: 35Jul 2021: 25Aug 2021: 30Sep 2021: 22Oct 2021: 34Nov 2021: 32Dec 2021: 27Jan 2022: 27Feb 2022: 28Mar 2022: 41Apr 2022: 24May 2022: 43Jun 2022: 32Jul 2022: 20Aug 2022: 22Sep 2022: 30Oct 2022: 32Nov 2022: 23Dec 2022: 24Jan 2023: 36Feb 2023: 34Mar 2023: 34Apr 2023: 25May 2023: 19Jun 2023: 32Jul 2023: 23Aug 2023: 40Sep 2023: 31Oct 2023: 24Nov 2023: 26Dec 2023: 28Jan 2024: 41Feb 2024: 55Mar 2024: 45Apr 2024: 48May 2024: 46Jun 2024: 37Jul 2024: 38Aug 2024: 43Sep 2024: 50Oct 2024: 32Nov 2024: 37Dec 2024: 37Jan 2025: 55Feb 2025: 39Mar 2025: 42Apr 2025: 38May 2025: 45Jun 2025: 37Jul 2025: 36Aug 2025: 39Sep 2025: 43Oct 2025: 39Nov 2025: 31Dec 2025: 26Jan 2026: 28Feb 2026: 25Mar 2026: 40Apr 2026: 30May 2026: 42Jun 2026: 23Jul 2026: 38Aug 2026: 43Sep 2026: 39ZeroUnknownOct 2016Oct 2017Oct 2018Oct 2019Oct 2020Oct 2021Oct 2022Oct 2023Oct 2024Oct 2025Oct 2026Calendar months

Suggested phases · exploratory · per six months

  1. 1 · Oct 2016–Apr 2023÷1.02Fitted decrease
  2. 2 · May 2023–May 2024×1.47Fitted increase
  3. 3 · Jun 2024–Sep 2026÷1.05Direction uncertain

Check the evidence

Interpretation and limitations (10)
  • Exploratory description, not a forecast, causal explanation or proof of a change.
  • Approximate 95% factor intervals assume independent, constant-variance log residuals and fixed boundaries. They do not account for boundary search, serial dependence or source revisions.
  • Confirmed zeros are treated as 1 only for fitting and its diagnostics. Raw counts stay zero; low-count results depend on this convention.
  • Independent phase lines may jump at boundaries. Every observation belongs to exactly one phase.
  • Reporting, classifications and seasonality can change. Counts are not population-adjusted; a level shift without a slope change is not the target of this search.
  • Uses dated last-good cached data, not newly verified source counts.
  • Boundary ranges show near-optimal models within 2 BIC units, not confidence intervals. They can be narrow even when the model is uncertain.
  • At least one factor interval includes 1; its direction is uncertain under this approximation.
  • Many dependent filter conditions were searched. No multiple-testing-adjusted significance or causal attribution is claimed.
  • Frequency compares fixed equal-length windows of raw counts, not population risk or a celeration-factor ratio. Reporting, classifications and exposure may have changed.
Phase diagnostics

Intervals assume fixed boundaries and independent log residuals. They are not adjusted for the phase or filter search. Near-optimal boundary ranges are not confidence intervals.

Saved phase results
PhaseStart–endMonthsFactor / six monthsConditional 95% intervalZeros fitted as 1Lag-one residual
1October 2016–April 202379÷1.020.9666–0.990100.096
2May 2023–May 202413×1.471.178–1.83500.040
3June 2024–September 202628÷1.050.8984–1.00300.024

Near-optimal boundary range: April 2023–June 2023.

Near-optimal boundary range: April 2024–July 2024.

Exact monthly observations (120 slots)

Newest first. Unknown coverage is not a zero. These are the original saved observations, not fitted or rounded predictions.

Raw monthly reports
MonthRaw countCoverage
September 202639complete
August 202643complete
July 202638complete
June 202623complete
May 202642complete
April 202630complete
March 202640complete
February 202625complete
January 202628complete
December 202526complete
November 202531complete
October 202539complete
September 202543complete
August 202539complete
July 202536complete
June 202537complete
May 202545complete
April 202538complete
March 202542complete
February 202539complete
January 202555complete
December 202437complete
November 202437complete
October 202432complete
September 202450complete
August 202443complete
July 202438complete
June 202437complete
May 202446complete
April 202448complete
March 202445complete
February 202455complete
January 202441complete
December 202328complete
November 202326complete
October 202324complete
September 202331complete
August 202340complete
July 202323complete
June 202332complete
May 202319complete
April 202325complete
March 202334complete
February 202334complete
January 202336complete
December 202224complete
November 202223complete
October 202232complete
September 202230complete
August 202222complete
July 202220complete
June 202232complete
May 202243complete
April 202224complete
March 202241complete
February 202228complete
January 202227complete
December 202127complete
November 202132complete
October 202134complete
September 202122complete
August 202130complete
July 202125complete
June 202135complete
May 202137complete
April 202136complete
March 202135complete
February 202134complete
January 202123complete
December 202025complete
November 202019complete
October 202033complete
September 202023complete
August 202019complete
July 202034complete
June 202032complete
May 202027complete
April 202018complete
March 202024complete
February 202031complete
January 202031complete
December 201934complete
November 201925complete
October 201933complete
September 201941complete
August 201933complete
July 201932complete
June 201926complete
May 201934complete
April 201939complete
March 201928complete
February 201932complete
January 201943complete
December 201828complete
November 201832complete
October 201827complete
September 201836complete
August 201840complete
July 201841complete
June 201828complete
May 201844complete
April 201831complete
March 201832complete
February 201831complete
January 201832complete
December 201735complete
November 201735complete
October 201740complete
September 201730complete
August 201731complete
July 201740complete
June 201737complete
May 201732complete
April 201748complete
March 201735complete
February 201741complete
January 201746complete
December 201640complete
November 201629complete
October 201630complete
Source and reproducibility
Publisher dataset
Crimes — 2001 to Present · City of Chicago
Source retrieved
2026-11-05T21:08:01.557Z
Publisher update
2026-11-05T12:12:19.000Z
Covered months
October 2016–September 2026
Source note
Source ijzp-q8t2. Joint day/category/hour/applicable-flag/ward/status counts; no addresses, coordinates or incident identifiers. Each year's cells reconcile with an independent source total. Reads are not an atomic publisher snapshot. Published crime reports, not population-adjusted rates or final incidence. Prepared daily community-area snapshot; scheduled rebuild at 06:00 America/Chicago. Full supported history is rechecked for corrections. Retrieval timestamps are preserved; this is not a real-time feed. Crime analysis starts January 1, 2002; 2001 is excluded from counts and fitting inputs. Local indexed neighborhood snapshot. Totals are for the loaded area before other filters, not citywide totals. Citywide and unassigned-area views use a separate network-backed scope.
Snapshot
daily-v1:ef0c5e9b-09d5-4a2d-849e-1be6745dbfbb:neighborhood-v2:0b8a1b9b8ab271b9ec2067e2c13dd476
Discovery method
multi-feed-turn-and-frequency-renewal-v2
Analyze method
exploratory-segmented-log10-ols-zero-as-one-v3
Search plan
a3ffccedeb8d8ce18a30df3636839f775af1e5188e55a1f685695133135c6e35
Evidence run
8c4d799f4d0418c7bb1c94902a664ab86dbc85cd02ec815c6ad37cad8928b51f

Challenge the pattern

Check unfiltered totals, comparable communities, source revisions and administrative definitions before treating this candidate as evidence of a real-world explanation. Only explicitly documented follow-ups above have been performed; no others are implied by the ranking. Browse the other crime reports candidates or review the complete screening method.