Chart People

Generated evidence · pending editorial review

Chatham: ROBBERY — Crime reports

ROBBERY · all other available filters

City source retrieved November 5, 2026 · scan evaluated November 9, 2026 · celeration turn

Download exact evidence ↓Open these filters in Chicago Data →

Current dashboard records may have been revised. Analyze is a separate action there. Saved-for-review choices stay in this browser and do not endorse a result.

Celeration turns: changes between fitted phases

A factor describes a standardized six-month multiplier, not a count. These turns passed the scan’s volume and magnitude gates; phase selection remains exploratory.

  • Suggested boundary November 2023: ×1.29 → ÷1.17 per six months; 1.52× change between factors. Adjacent raw phase totals: 540 and 652. The fitted slope signs reverse.

Saved observations and fitted phases

Suggested 3-phase description — exploratory, not confirmed.

Fixed six-log-cycle frame · 120 calendar months · factors per six months. Raw zeros stay zero; confirmed zeros become one only for log-space fitting and diagnostics. Missing coverage remains unavailable.

Monthly crime reports on a standard celeration chartCity of Chicago published records. Fixed six-decade count scale, 120 calendar months, celeration per 6 months. Zero markers are unconnected below the plot. Exact counts and coverage are available in the data table. Analyze: suggested. Suggested 3-phase description — exploratory, not confirmed. See the phase results table for dates, factors and uncertainty.1510501005001,0005,00010,00050,000100,000500,0001,000,000Reports per monthsuggested phase 1: 2016-10–2021-12suggested phase 2: 2022-01–2023-10suggested phase 3: 2023-11–2026-09Oct 2016: 28Nov 2016: 28Dec 2016: 35Jan 2017: 20Feb 2017: 15Mar 2017: 13Apr 2017: 20May 2017: 35Jun 2017: 24Jul 2017: 30Aug 2017: 28Sep 2017: 27Oct 2017: 23Nov 2017: 28Dec 2017: 33Jan 2018: 21Feb 2018: 16Mar 2018: 16Apr 2018: 18May 2018: 22Jun 2018: 23Jul 2018: 26Aug 2018: 29Sep 2018: 21Oct 2018: 11Nov 2018: 19Dec 2018: 21Jan 2019: 21Feb 2019: 13Mar 2019: 8Apr 2019: 17May 2019: 23Jun 2019: 18Jul 2019: 26Aug 2019: 29Sep 2019: 25Oct 2019: 22Nov 2019: 23Dec 2019: 25Jan 2020: 21Feb 2020: 26Mar 2020: 10Apr 2020: 13May 2020: 17Jun 2020: 16Jul 2020: 28Aug 2020: 24Sep 2020: 14Oct 2020: 24Nov 2020: 21Dec 2020: 16Jan 2021: 19Feb 2021: 11Mar 2021: 18Apr 2021: 11May 2021: 17Jun 2021: 12Jul 2021: 26Aug 2021: 15Sep 2021: 21Oct 2021: 17Nov 2021: 18Dec 2021: 25Jan 2022: 11Feb 2022: 17Mar 2022: 14Apr 2022: 18May 2022: 16Jun 2022: 13Jul 2022: 22Aug 2022: 21Sep 2022: 22Oct 2022: 30Nov 2022: 38Dec 2022: 20Jan 2023: 43Feb 2023: 19Mar 2023: 22Apr 2023: 26May 2023: 28Jun 2023: 16Jul 2023: 26Aug 2023: 35Sep 2023: 40Oct 2023: 43Nov 2023: 23Dec 2023: 36Jan 2024: 16Feb 2024: 14Mar 2024: 31Apr 2024: 24May 2024: 35Jun 2024: 25Jul 2024: 29Aug 2024: 23Sep 2024: 24Oct 2024: 30Nov 2024: 17Dec 2024: 22Jan 2025: 20Feb 2025: 16Mar 2025: 12Apr 2025: 17May 2025: 20Jun 2025: 19Jul 2025: 15Aug 2025: 14Sep 2025: 10Oct 2025: 15Nov 2025: 10Dec 2025: 20Jan 2026: 15Feb 2026: 8Mar 2026: 9Apr 2026: 20May 2026: 13Jun 2026: 14Jul 2026: 13Aug 2026: 11Sep 2026: 12ZeroUnknownOct 2016Oct 2017Oct 2018Oct 2019Oct 2020Oct 2021Oct 2022Oct 2023Oct 2024Oct 2025Oct 2026Calendar months

Suggested phases · exploratory · per six months

  1. 1 · Oct 2016–Dec 2021÷1.04Fitted decrease
  2. 2 · Jan 2022–Oct 2023×1.29Fitted increase
  3. 3 · Nov 2023–Sep 2026÷1.17Fitted decrease

Check the evidence

Interpretation and limitations (9)
  • Exploratory description, not a forecast, causal explanation or proof of a change.
  • Approximate 95% factor intervals assume independent, constant-variance log residuals and fixed boundaries. They do not account for boundary search, serial dependence or source revisions.
  • Confirmed zeros are treated as 1 only for fitting and its diagnostics. Raw counts stay zero; low-count results depend on this convention.
  • Independent phase lines may jump at boundaries. Every observation belongs to exactly one phase.
  • Reporting, classifications and seasonality can change. Counts are not population-adjusted; a level shift without a slope change is not the target of this search.
  • Uses dated last-good cached data, not newly verified source counts.
  • Boundary ranges show near-optimal models within 2 BIC units, not confidence intervals. They can be narrow even when the model is uncertain.
  • Many dependent filter conditions were searched. No multiple-testing-adjusted significance or causal attribution is claimed.
  • Frequency compares fixed equal-length windows of raw counts, not population risk or a celeration-factor ratio. Reporting, classifications and exposure may have changed.
Phase diagnostics

Intervals assume fixed boundaries and independent log residuals. They are not adjusted for the phase or filter search. Near-optimal boundary ranges are not confidence intervals.

Saved phase results
PhaseStart–endMonthsFactor / six monthsConditional 95% intervalZeros fitted as 1Lag-one residual
1October 2016–December 202163÷1.040.9404–0.990600.264
2January 2022–October 202322×1.291.147–1.45800.019
3November 2023–September 202635÷1.170.8054–0.902900.021

Near-optimal boundary range: October 2021–June 2022.

Near-optimal boundary range: August 2023–January 2024.

Exact monthly observations (120 slots)

Newest first. Unknown coverage is not a zero. These are the original saved observations, not fitted or rounded predictions.

Raw monthly reports
MonthRaw countCoverage
September 202612complete
August 202611complete
July 202613complete
June 202614complete
May 202613complete
April 202620complete
March 20269complete
February 20268complete
January 202615complete
December 202520complete
November 202510complete
October 202515complete
September 202510complete
August 202514complete
July 202515complete
June 202519complete
May 202520complete
April 202517complete
March 202512complete
February 202516complete
January 202520complete
December 202422complete
November 202417complete
October 202430complete
September 202424complete
August 202423complete
July 202429complete
June 202425complete
May 202435complete
April 202424complete
March 202431complete
February 202414complete
January 202416complete
December 202336complete
November 202323complete
October 202343complete
September 202340complete
August 202335complete
July 202326complete
June 202316complete
May 202328complete
April 202326complete
March 202322complete
February 202319complete
January 202343complete
December 202220complete
November 202238complete
October 202230complete
September 202222complete
August 202221complete
July 202222complete
June 202213complete
May 202216complete
April 202218complete
March 202214complete
February 202217complete
January 202211complete
December 202125complete
November 202118complete
October 202117complete
September 202121complete
August 202115complete
July 202126complete
June 202112complete
May 202117complete
April 202111complete
March 202118complete
February 202111complete
January 202119complete
December 202016complete
November 202021complete
October 202024complete
September 202014complete
August 202024complete
July 202028complete
June 202016complete
May 202017complete
April 202013complete
March 202010complete
February 202026complete
January 202021complete
December 201925complete
November 201923complete
October 201922complete
September 201925complete
August 201929complete
July 201926complete
June 201918complete
May 201923complete
April 201917complete
March 20198complete
February 201913complete
January 201921complete
December 201821complete
November 201819complete
October 201811complete
September 201821complete
August 201829complete
July 201826complete
June 201823complete
May 201822complete
April 201818complete
March 201816complete
February 201816complete
January 201821complete
December 201733complete
November 201728complete
October 201723complete
September 201727complete
August 201728complete
July 201730complete
June 201724complete
May 201735complete
April 201720complete
March 201713complete
February 201715complete
January 201720complete
December 201635complete
November 201628complete
October 201628complete
Source and reproducibility
Publisher dataset
Crimes — 2001 to Present · City of Chicago
Source retrieved
2026-11-05T21:08:01.557Z
Publisher update
2026-11-05T12:12:19.000Z
Covered months
October 2016–September 2026
Source note
Source ijzp-q8t2. Joint day/category/hour/applicable-flag/ward/status counts; no addresses, coordinates or incident identifiers. Each year's cells reconcile with an independent source total. Reads are not an atomic publisher snapshot. Published crime reports, not population-adjusted rates or final incidence. Prepared daily community-area snapshot; scheduled rebuild at 06:00 America/Chicago. Full supported history is rechecked for corrections. Retrieval timestamps are preserved; this is not a real-time feed. Crime analysis starts January 1, 2002; 2001 is excluded from counts and fitting inputs. Local indexed neighborhood snapshot. Totals are for the loaded area before other filters, not citywide totals. Citywide and unassigned-area views use a separate network-backed scope.
Snapshot
daily-v1:ef0c5e9b-09d5-4a2d-849e-1be6745dbfbb:neighborhood-v2:e882b0773335dcf97e9b7c47fdfd134a
Discovery method
multi-feed-turn-and-frequency-renewal-v2
Analyze method
exploratory-segmented-log10-ols-zero-as-one-v3
Search plan
a3ffccedeb8d8ce18a30df3636839f775af1e5188e55a1f685695133135c6e35
Evidence run
f9ad92a2b3f76bf352a8ba595f19a1a626c39e82d1183131ef79a317b6bb2fe7

Challenge the pattern

Check unfiltered totals, comparable communities, source revisions and administrative definitions before treating this candidate as evidence of a real-world explanation. Only explicitly documented follow-ups above have been performed; no others are implied by the ranking. Browse the other crime reports candidates or review the complete screening method.