{"schemaVersion":1,"planHash":"a3ffccedeb8d8ce18a30df3636839f775af1e5188e55a1f685695133135c6e35","input":{"coverage":{"endExclusive":"2026-10","start":"2016-10"},"observations":[{"count":49,"month":"2016-10","status":"complete"},{"count":61,"month":"2016-11","status":"complete"},{"count":58,"month":"2016-12","status":"complete"},{"count":66,"month":"2017-01","status":"complete"},{"count":42,"month":"2017-02","status":"complete"},{"count":58,"month":"2017-03","status":"complete"},{"count":45,"month":"2017-04","status":"complete"},{"count":54,"month":"2017-05","status":"complete"},{"count":60,"month":"2017-06","status":"complete"},{"count":50,"month":"2017-07","status":"complete"},{"count":67,"month":"2017-08","status":"complete"},{"count":47,"month":"2017-09","status":"complete"},{"count":51,"month":"2017-10","status":"complete"},{"count":52,"month":"2017-11","status":"complete"},{"count":65,"month":"2017-12","status":"complete"},{"count":53,"month":"2018-01","status":"complete"},{"count":46,"month":"2018-02","status":"complete"},{"count":47,"month":"2018-03","status":"complete"},{"count":46,"month":"2018-04","status":"complete"},{"count":46,"month":"2018-05","status":"complete"},{"count":53,"month":"2018-06","status":"complete"},{"count":47,"month":"2018-07","status":"complete"},{"count":51,"month":"2018-08","status":"complete"},{"count":46,"month":"2018-09","status":"complete"},{"count":44,"month":"2018-10","status":"complete"},{"count":44,"month":"2018-11","status":"complete"},{"count":46,"month":"2018-12","status":"complete"},{"count":38,"month":"2019-01","status":"complete"},{"count":40,"month":"2019-02","status":"complete"},{"count":51,"month":"2019-03","status":"complete"},{"count":47,"month":"2019-04","status":"complete"},{"count":47,"month":"2019-05","status":"complete"},{"count":48,"month":"2019-06","status":"complete"},{"count":44,"month":"2019-07","status":"complete"},{"count":58,"month":"2019-08","status":"complete"},{"count":43,"month":"2019-09","status":"complete"},{"count":39,"month":"2019-10","status":"complete"},{"count":61,"month":"2019-11","status":"complete"},{"count":52,"month":"2019-12","status":"complete"},{"count":45,"month":"2020-01","status":"complete"},{"count":46,"month":"2020-02","status":"complete"},{"count":39,"month":"2020-03","status":"complete"},{"count":18,"month":"2020-04","status":"complete"},{"count":21,"month":"2020-05","status":"complete"},{"count":38,"month":"2020-06","status":"complete"},{"count":36,"month":"2020-07","status":"complete"},{"count":33,"month":"2020-08","status":"complete"},{"count":42,"month":"2020-09","status":"complete"},{"count":36,"month":"2020-10","status":"complete"},{"count":33,"month":"2020-11","status":"complete"},{"count":57,"month":"2020-12","status":"complete"},{"count":44,"month":"2021-01","status":"complete"},{"count":27,"month":"2021-02","status":"complete"},{"count":35,"month":"2021-03","status":"complete"},{"count":29,"month":"2021-04","status":"complete"},{"count":32,"month":"2021-05","status":"complete"},{"count":28,"month":"2021-06","status":"complete"},{"count":37,"month":"2021-07","status":"complete"},{"count":25,"month":"2021-08","status":"complete"},{"count":36,"month":"2021-09","status":"complete"},{"count":51,"month":"2021-10","status":"complete"},{"count":48,"month":"2021-11","status":"complete"},{"count":37,"month":"2021-12","status":"complete"},{"count":25,"month":"2022-01","status":"complete"},{"count":31,"month":"2022-02","status":"complete"},{"count":36,"month":"2022-03","status":"complete"},{"count":33,"month":"2022-04","status":"complete"},{"count":42,"month":"2022-05","status":"complete"},{"count":41,"month":"2022-06","status":"complete"},{"count":55,"month":"2022-07","status":"complete"},{"count":41,"month":"2022-08","status":"complete"},{"count":43,"month":"2022-09","status":"complete"},{"count":62,"month":"2022-10","status":"complete"},{"count":69,"month":"2022-11","status":"complete"},{"count":57,"month":"2022-12","status":"complete"},{"count":60,"month":"2023-01","status":"complete"},{"count":45,"month":"2023-02","status":"complete"},{"count":51,"month":"2023-03","status":"complete"},{"count":44,"month":"2023-04","status":"complete"},{"count":56,"month":"2023-05","status":"complete"},{"count":47,"month":"2023-06","status":"complete"},{"count":46,"month":"2023-07","status":"complete"},{"count":36,"month":"2023-08","status":"complete"},{"count":47,"month":"2023-09","status":"complete"},{"count":52,"month":"2023-10","status":"complete"},{"count":59,"month":"2023-11","status":"complete"},{"count":47,"month":"2023-12","status":"complete"},{"count":41,"month":"2024-01","status":"complete"},{"count":60,"month":"2024-02","status":"complete"},{"count":55,"month":"2024-03","status":"complete"},{"count":47,"month":"2024-04","status":"complete"},{"count":62,"month":"2024-05","status":"complete"},{"count":43,"month":"2024-06","status":"complete"},{"count":55,"month":"2024-07","status":"complete"},{"count":58,"month":"2024-08","status":"complete"},{"count":51,"month":"2024-09","status":"complete"},{"count":59,"month":"2024-10","status":"complete"},{"count":40,"month":"2024-11","status":"complete"},{"count":53,"month":"2024-12","status":"complete"},{"count":46,"month":"2025-01","status":"complete"},{"count":49,"month":"2025-02","status":"complete"},{"count":57,"month":"2025-03","status":"complete"},{"count":44,"month":"2025-04","status":"complete"},{"count":59,"month":"2025-05","status":"complete"},{"count":43,"month":"2025-06","status":"complete"},{"count":41,"month":"2025-07","status":"complete"},{"count":64,"month":"2025-08","status":"complete"},{"count":52,"month":"2025-09","status":"complete"},{"count":43,"month":"2025-10","status":"complete"},{"count":29,"month":"2025-11","status":"complete"},{"count":39,"month":"2025-12","status":"complete"},{"count":39,"month":"2026-01","status":"complete"},{"count":49,"month":"2026-02","status":"complete"},{"count":54,"month":"2026-03","status":"complete"},{"count":44,"month":"2026-04","status":"complete"},{"count":57,"month":"2026-05","status":"complete"},{"count":37,"month":"2026-06","status":"complete"},{"count":37,"month":"2026-07","status":"complete"},{"count":27,"month":"2026-08","status":"complete"},{"count":36,"month":"2026-09","status":"complete"}],"period":"monthly","selectedCount":5530,"selection":{"dataset":"crime","filters":{"area":"65","arrest":"all","domestic":"all","hourEnd":18,"hourStart":12,"status":"all","types":[],"ward":"all"},"period":"monthly","scenario":"normal","start":"2016-10","view":"chart"},"source":{"cacheStatus":"stale","completeThroughExclusive":"2026-10","coverage":{"endExclusive":"2026-10","start":"2016-10"},"coveragePolicy":"Complete closed calendar periods within the loaded published-record coverage. Counts are not final incidence; corrections remain possible. Unloaded/future periods are missing, not zero.","kind":"socrata","label":"City of Chicago · Crimes — 2001 to present","note":"Source ijzp-q8t2. Joint day/category/hour/applicable-flag/ward/status counts; no addresses, coordinates or incident identifiers. Each year's cells reconcile with an independent source total. Reads are not an atomic publisher snapshot. Published crime reports, not population-adjusted rates or final incidence. Prepared daily community-area snapshot; scheduled rebuild at 06:00 America/Chicago. Full supported history is rechecked for corrections. Retrieval timestamps are preserved; this is not a real-time feed. Crime analysis starts January 1, 2002; 2001 is excluded from counts and fitting inputs. Local indexed neighborhood snapshot. Totals are for the loaded area before other filters, not citywide totals. Citywide and unassigned-area views use a separate network-backed scope.","publishedUpdatedAt":"2026-11-05T12:12:19.000Z","retrievedAt":"2026-11-05T21:08:01.557Z","snapshotId":"daily-v1:ef0c5e9b-09d5-4a2d-849e-1be6745dbfbb:neighborhood-v2:e682fcccf3e38b54794481ec5cc863bc","workingSet":{"area":"65","coverage":{"endExclusive":"2026-10-28","start":"2001-01-01"},"rowCount":57322}},"totalCount":16897,"window":{"endExclusive":"2026-10","start":"2016-10"}},"evidence":{"body":{"completedAt":"2026-11-09T17:39:03.127Z","inputHash":"0fd1b0a10fb5cafb095d7780cf5c0065058eef838019294378f981dd7ad361c8","outcome":{"analysis":{"available":true,"bicGain":31.236025034468298,"boundaries":["2022-01","2023-01"],"boundaryRanges":[{"earliest":"2021-12","latest":"2022-02"},{"earliest":"2022-12","latest":"2023-02"}],"factorRatios":[1.659166704348826,0.6146372257830026],"message":"Suggested 3-phase description — exploratory, not confirmed.","method":"exploratory-segmented-log10-ols-zero-as-one-v3","mode":"suggested","phases":[{"factorInterval":[0.9318298599955568,0.9655969563223313],"fit":{"available":true,"calendarPeriod":"monthly","end":"2021-12","factor":0.9485631642763563,"intercept":1.760041637495603,"method":"log10-ols-calendar-zero-as-one-v2","origin":24201,"periodUnits":6,"sampleCount":63,"slope":-0.0038222907320457104,"start":"2016-10","zeroCount":0},"lagOne":0.27864973961547723,"slopeSE":0.0006307947359444861,"sse":0.5056347609001671},{"factorInterval":[1.3500591512266007,1.834677613960912],"fit":{"available":true,"calendarPeriod":"monthly","end":"2022-12","factor":1.5738244191390962,"intercept":1.4342005478799025,"method":"log10-ols-calendar-zero-as-one-v2","origin":24264,"periodUnits":6,"sampleCount":12,"slope":0.03282604657516472,"start":"2022-01","zeroCount":0},"lagOne":-0.22533537384644836,"slopeSE":0.004981859980100266,"sse":0.03549106827169421},{"factorInterval":[0.9426435700586898,0.9926651367394873],"fit":{"available":true,"calendarPeriod":"monthly","end":"2026-09","factor":0.9673310748491996,"intercept":1.7275630110911928,"method":"log10-ols-calendar-zero-as-one-v2","origin":24276,"periodUnits":6,"sampleCount":45,"slope":-0.0024041434315588534,"start":"2023-01","zeroCount":0},"lagOne":0.12217035052114918,"slopeSE":0.0009162569927575363,"sse":0.2739963867737369}],"range":{"end":"2026-09","start":"2016-10"},"warnings":["Exploratory description, not a forecast, causal explanation or proof of a change.","Approximate 95% factor intervals assume independent, constant-variance log residuals and fixed boundaries. They do not account for boundary search, serial dependence or source revisions.","Confirmed zeros are treated as 1 only for fitting and its diagnostics. Raw counts stay zero; low-count results depend on this convention.","Independent phase lines may jump at boundaries. Every observation belongs to exactly one phase.","Reporting, classifications and seasonality can change. Counts are not population-adjusted; a level shift without a slope change is not the target of this search.","Uses dated last-good cached data, not newly verified source counts.","Boundary ranges show near-optimal models within 2 BIC units, not confidence intervals. They can be narrow even when the model is uncertain.","A phase is at the minimum allowed length; its boundary may be sensitive to that search limit."]},"annualFrequency":{"available":true,"end":"2026-09","flag":false,"foldMagnitude":1.2362525458248472,"monthlyDelta":-9.666666666666666,"priorMonthlyMean":50.583333333333336,"priorStart":"2024-10","priorTotal":607,"ratio":0.8088962108731467,"reason":"Raw counts: latest 12 covered months versus preceding 12; descriptive, not a detected breakpoint","recentMonthlyMean":40.916666666666664,"recentStart":"2025-10","recentTotal":491,"score":0.32127115876240886,"windowMonths":12,"zeroBaseline":false},"flags":["turn"],"frequency":{"available":true,"end":"2026-09","flag":false,"foldMagnitude":1.2362525458248472,"monthlyDelta":-9.666666666666666,"priorMonthlyMean":50.583333333333336,"priorStart":"2024-10","priorTotal":607,"ratio":0.8088962108731467,"reason":"Raw counts: latest 12 covered months versus preceding 12; descriptive, not a detected breakpoint","recentMonthlyMean":40.916666666666664,"recentStart":"2025-10","recentTotal":491,"score":0.32127115876240886,"windowMonths":12,"zeroBaseline":false},"frequencyAssessment":"annual-policy","method":"multi-feed-turn-and-frequency-renewal-v2","observationHash":"473b9c2d9d810ef2f64edc32b30fd4161965a4d46620489ae2e3ef690d9a2543","phases":[{"factorInterval":[0.9318298599955568,0.9655969563223313],"fit":{"available":true,"calendarPeriod":"monthly","end":"2021-12","factor":0.9485631642763563,"intercept":1.760041637495603,"method":"log10-ols-calendar-zero-as-one-v2","origin":24201,"periodUnits":6,"sampleCount":63,"slope":-0.0038222907320457104,"start":"2016-10","zeroCount":0},"lagOne":0.27864973961547723,"slopeSE":0.0006307947359444861,"sse":0.5056347609001671},{"factorInterval":[1.3500591512266007,1.834677613960912],"fit":{"available":true,"calendarPeriod":"monthly","end":"2022-12","factor":1.5738244191390962,"intercept":1.4342005478799025,"method":"log10-ols-calendar-zero-as-one-v2","origin":24264,"periodUnits":6,"sampleCount":12,"slope":0.03282604657516472,"start":"2022-01","zeroCount":0},"lagOne":-0.22533537384644836,"slopeSE":0.004981859980100266,"sse":0.03549106827169421},{"factorInterval":[0.9426435700586898,0.9926651367394873],"fit":{"available":true,"calendarPeriod":"monthly","end":"2026-09","factor":0.9673310748491996,"intercept":1.7275630110911928,"method":"log10-ols-calendar-zero-as-one-v2","origin":24276,"periodUnits":6,"sampleCount":45,"slope":-0.0024041434315588534,"start":"2023-01","zeroCount":0},"lagOne":0.12217035052114918,"slopeSE":0.0009162569927575363,"sse":0.2739963867737369}],"ranking":{"frequency":0,"turn":1.9935425682549048},"reason":"Review turn; heuristic thresholds, not confirmed discoveries","reviewContext":false,"status":"candidate","thresholds":{"minFrequencyRatio":1.5,"minMonthlyDelta":5,"minPhaseTotal":120,"minTurn":1.5},"turns":[{"boundary":"2022-01","factorRatio":1.659166704348826,"flag":true,"foldMagnitude":1.659166704348826,"followingFactor":1.5738244191390962,"followingTotal":535,"precedingFactor":0.9485631642763563,"precedingTotal":2835,"reversal":true,"score":1.9935425682549048},{"boundary":"2023-01","factorRatio":0.6146372257830026,"flag":true,"foldMagnitude":1.6269759755050202,"followingFactor":0.9673310748491996,"followingTotal":2160,"precedingFactor":1.5738244191390962,"precedingTotal":535,"reversal":true,"score":1.9164002687863801}],"warnings":["Exploratory description, not a forecast, causal explanation or proof of a change.","Approximate 95% factor intervals assume independent, constant-variance log residuals and fixed boundaries. They do not account for boundary search, serial dependence or source revisions.","Confirmed zeros are treated as 1 only for fitting and its diagnostics. Raw counts stay zero; low-count results depend on this convention.","Independent phase lines may jump at boundaries. Every observation belongs to exactly one phase.","Reporting, classifications and seasonality can change. Counts are not population-adjusted; a level shift without a slope change is not the target of this search.","Uses dated last-good cached data, not newly verified source counts.","Boundary ranges show near-optimal models within 2 BIC units, not confidence intervals. They can be narrow even when the model is uncertain.","A phase is at the minimum allowed length; its boundary may be sensitive to that search limit.","Many dependent filter conditions were searched. No multiple-testing-adjusted significance or causal attribution is claimed.","Frequency compares fixed equal-length windows of raw counts, not population risk or a celeration-factor ratio. Reporting, classifications and exposure may have changed."]},"runId":"ce5766085fb8d1b735690f8ef153e668c10d8b228bc9c56df4308d87343c64e4","schemaVersion":1,"seriesId":"ddc1c546b86814c0257bff8941c368a81d3488f86c55ac1c062d0f325f481fe2"},"sha256":"4484a1c1f7e448cb808c3151413862bd79afd93b1350ed74aad0772358cd5569"}}