{"schemaVersion":1,"planHash":"a3ffccedeb8d8ce18a30df3636839f775af1e5188e55a1f685695133135c6e35","input":{"coverage":{"endExclusive":"2026-10","start":"2016-10"},"observations":[{"count":6,"month":"2016-10","status":"complete"},{"count":5,"month":"2016-11","status":"complete"},{"count":8,"month":"2016-12","status":"complete"},{"count":10,"month":"2017-01","status":"complete"},{"count":12,"month":"2017-02","status":"complete"},{"count":4,"month":"2017-03","status":"complete"},{"count":2,"month":"2017-04","status":"complete"},{"count":3,"month":"2017-05","status":"complete"},{"count":5,"month":"2017-06","status":"complete"},{"count":3,"month":"2017-07","status":"complete"},{"count":5,"month":"2017-08","status":"complete"},{"count":2,"month":"2017-09","status":"complete"},{"count":2,"month":"2017-10","status":"complete"},{"count":4,"month":"2017-11","status":"complete"},{"count":3,"month":"2017-12","status":"complete"},{"count":6,"month":"2018-01","status":"complete"},{"count":0,"month":"2018-02","status":"complete"},{"count":3,"month":"2018-03","status":"complete"},{"count":4,"month":"2018-04","status":"complete"},{"count":2,"month":"2018-05","status":"complete"},{"count":5,"month":"2018-06","status":"complete"},{"count":3,"month":"2018-07","status":"complete"},{"count":6,"month":"2018-08","status":"complete"},{"count":2,"month":"2018-09","status":"complete"},{"count":2,"month":"2018-10","status":"complete"},{"count":6,"month":"2018-11","status":"complete"},{"count":2,"month":"2018-12","status":"complete"},{"count":5,"month":"2019-01","status":"complete"},{"count":4,"month":"2019-02","status":"complete"},{"count":2,"month":"2019-03","status":"complete"},{"count":2,"month":"2019-04","status":"complete"},{"count":3,"month":"2019-05","status":"complete"},{"count":2,"month":"2019-06","status":"complete"},{"count":4,"month":"2019-07","status":"complete"},{"count":1,"month":"2019-08","status":"complete"},{"count":3,"month":"2019-09","status":"complete"},{"count":8,"month":"2019-10","status":"complete"},{"count":1,"month":"2019-11","status":"complete"},{"count":3,"month":"2019-12","status":"complete"},{"count":3,"month":"2020-01","status":"complete"},{"count":1,"month":"2020-02","status":"complete"},{"count":7,"month":"2020-03","status":"complete"},{"count":4,"month":"2020-04","status":"complete"},{"count":2,"month":"2020-05","status":"complete"},{"count":0,"month":"2020-06","status":"complete"},{"count":1,"month":"2020-07","status":"complete"},{"count":5,"month":"2020-08","status":"complete"},{"count":0,"month":"2020-09","status":"complete"},{"count":2,"month":"2020-10","status":"complete"},{"count":3,"month":"2020-11","status":"complete"},{"count":2,"month":"2020-12","status":"complete"},{"count":4,"month":"2021-01","status":"complete"},{"count":2,"month":"2021-02","status":"complete"},{"count":2,"month":"2021-03","status":"complete"},{"count":0,"month":"2021-04","status":"complete"},{"count":3,"month":"2021-05","status":"complete"},{"count":3,"month":"2021-06","status":"complete"},{"count":4,"month":"2021-07","status":"complete"},{"count":2,"month":"2021-08","status":"complete"},{"count":4,"month":"2021-09","status":"complete"},{"count":6,"month":"2021-10","status":"complete"},{"count":1,"month":"2021-11","status":"complete"},{"count":5,"month":"2021-12","status":"complete"},{"count":4,"month":"2022-01","status":"complete"},{"count":10,"month":"2022-02","status":"complete"},{"count":9,"month":"2022-03","status":"complete"},{"count":1,"month":"2022-04","status":"complete"},{"count":1,"month":"2022-05","status":"complete"},{"count":3,"month":"2022-06","status":"complete"},{"count":4,"month":"2022-07","status":"complete"},{"count":5,"month":"2022-08","status":"complete"},{"count":4,"month":"2022-09","status":"complete"},{"count":13,"month":"2022-10","status":"complete"},{"count":5,"month":"2022-11","status":"complete"},{"count":11,"month":"2022-12","status":"complete"},{"count":16,"month":"2023-01","status":"complete"},{"count":8,"month":"2023-02","status":"complete"},{"count":7,"month":"2023-03","status":"complete"},{"count":5,"month":"2023-04","status":"complete"},{"count":6,"month":"2023-05","status":"complete"},{"count":31,"month":"2023-06","status":"complete"},{"count":16,"month":"2023-07","status":"complete"},{"count":21,"month":"2023-08","status":"complete"},{"count":11,"month":"2023-09","status":"complete"},{"count":10,"month":"2023-10","status":"complete"},{"count":14,"month":"2023-11","status":"complete"},{"count":5,"month":"2023-12","status":"complete"},{"count":8,"month":"2024-01","status":"complete"},{"count":7,"month":"2024-02","status":"complete"},{"count":4,"month":"2024-03","status":"complete"},{"count":3,"month":"2024-04","status":"complete"},{"count":8,"month":"2024-05","status":"complete"},{"count":10,"month":"2024-06","status":"complete"},{"count":9,"month":"2024-07","status":"complete"},{"count":13,"month":"2024-08","status":"complete"},{"count":13,"month":"2024-09","status":"complete"},{"count":15,"month":"2024-10","status":"complete"},{"count":11,"month":"2024-11","status":"complete"},{"count":3,"month":"2024-12","status":"complete"},{"count":1,"month":"2025-01","status":"complete"},{"count":8,"month":"2025-02","status":"complete"},{"count":10,"month":"2025-03","status":"complete"},{"count":8,"month":"2025-04","status":"complete"},{"count":7,"month":"2025-05","status":"complete"},{"count":8,"month":"2025-06","status":"complete"},{"count":2,"month":"2025-07","status":"complete"},{"count":5,"month":"2025-08","status":"complete"},{"count":4,"month":"2025-09","status":"complete"},{"count":8,"month":"2025-10","status":"complete"},{"count":9,"month":"2025-11","status":"complete"},{"count":2,"month":"2025-12","status":"complete"},{"count":6,"month":"2026-01","status":"complete"},{"count":7,"month":"2026-02","status":"complete"},{"count":11,"month":"2026-03","status":"complete"},{"count":9,"month":"2026-04","status":"complete"},{"count":8,"month":"2026-05","status":"complete"},{"count":14,"month":"2026-06","status":"complete"},{"count":6,"month":"2026-07","status":"complete"},{"count":9,"month":"2026-08","status":"complete"},{"count":10,"month":"2026-09","status":"complete"}],"period":"monthly","selectedCount":695,"selection":{"dataset":"crime","filters":{"area":"62","arrest":"all","domestic":"all","hourEnd":24,"hourStart":0,"status":"all","types":["MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT"],"ward":"all"},"period":"monthly","scenario":"normal","start":"2016-10","view":"chart"},"source":{"cacheStatus":"stale","completeThroughExclusive":"2026-10","coverage":{"endExclusive":"2026-10","start":"2016-10"},"coveragePolicy":"Complete closed calendar periods within the loaded published-record coverage. Counts are not final incidence; corrections remain possible. Unloaded/future periods are missing, not zero.","kind":"socrata","label":"City of Chicago · Crimes — 2001 to present","note":"Source ijzp-q8t2. Joint day/category/hour/applicable-flag/ward/status counts; no addresses, coordinates or incident identifiers. Each year's cells reconcile with an independent source total. Reads are not an atomic publisher snapshot. Published crime reports, not population-adjusted rates or final incidence. Prepared daily community-area snapshot; scheduled rebuild at 06:00 America/Chicago. Full supported history is rechecked for corrections. Retrieval timestamps are preserved; this is not a real-time feed. Crime analysis starts January 1, 2002; 2001 is excluded from counts and fitting inputs. Local indexed neighborhood snapshot. Totals are for the loaded area before other filters, not citywide totals. Citywide and unassigned-area views use a separate network-backed scope.","publishedUpdatedAt":"2026-11-05T12:12:19.000Z","retrievedAt":"2026-11-05T21:08:01.557Z","snapshotId":"daily-v1:ef0c5e9b-09d5-4a2d-849e-1be6745dbfbb:neighborhood-v2:603151f08147c569d48c07aa0060014a","workingSet":{"area":"62","coverage":{"endExclusive":"2026-10-28","start":"2001-01-01"},"rowCount":30453}},"totalCount":9241,"window":{"endExclusive":"2026-10","start":"2016-10"}},"evidence":{"body":{"completedAt":"2026-11-09T17:38:55.546Z","inputHash":"594d4891e750fa20584dbbb15f39db6a128072501b9f0210e8d4670bda4235a0","outcome":{"analysis":{"available":true,"bicGain":15.316647851705511,"boundaries":["2020-06","2023-12"],"boundaryRanges":[{"earliest":"2020-05","latest":"2021-09"},{"earliest":"2022-10","latest":"2023-12"}],"factorRatios":[1.5498681345676717,0.7389862084410525],"message":"Suggested 3-phase description — exploratory, not confirmed.","method":"exploratory-segmented-log10-ols-zero-as-one-v3","mode":"suggested","phases":[{"factorInterval":[0.8290999637722297,0.9805571338282042],"fit":{"available":true,"calendarPeriod":"monthly","end":"2020-05","factor":0.90165397139566,"intercept":0.6774831429745831,"method":"log10-ols-calendar-zero-as-one-v2","origin":24201,"periodUnits":6,"sampleCount":44,"slope":-0.007493350015364344,"start":"2016-10","zeroCount":1},"lagOne":-0.1696623611580707,"slopeSE":0.0029732004553247606,"sse":2.634208043158447},{"factorInterval":[1.2647990685076171,1.544001653832297],"fit":{"available":true,"calendarPeriod":"monthly","end":"2023-11","factor":1.3974447586725243,"intercept":0.11857291175650497,"method":"log10-ols-calendar-zero-as-one-v2","origin":24245,"periodUnits":6,"sampleCount":42,"slope":0.024222441522072105,"start":"2020-06","zeroCount":3},"lagOne":0.07800601702983341,"slopeSE":0.0035346677810161133,"sse":3.0837385538338955},{"factorInterval":[0.9053246714107402,1.177979165235217],"fit":{"available":true,"calendarPeriod":"monthly","end":"2026-09","factor":1.0326924037172303,"intercept":0.7845758564749328,"method":"log10-ols-calendar-zero-as-one-v2","origin":24287,"periodUnits":6,"sampleCount":34,"slope":0.0023284970746064787,"start":"2023-12","zeroCount":0},"lagOne":0.2692322880795505,"slopeSE":0.004665216239955975,"sse":2.2791514814642877}],"range":{"end":"2026-09","start":"2016-10"},"warnings":["Exploratory description, not a forecast, causal explanation or proof of a change.","Approximate 95% factor intervals assume independent, constant-variance log residuals and fixed boundaries. They do not account for boundary search, serial dependence or source revisions.","Confirmed zeros are treated as 1 only for fitting and its diagnostics. Raw counts stay zero; low-count results depend on this convention.","Independent phase lines may jump at boundaries. Every observation belongs to exactly one phase.","Reporting, classifications and seasonality can change. Counts are not population-adjusted; a level shift without a slope change is not the target of this search.","Uses dated last-good cached data, not newly verified source counts.","4 confirmed zeros fitted as 1; raw counts remain zero. Low-count trends are sensitive to this adjustment.","Boundary ranges show near-optimal models within 2 BIC units, not confidence intervals. They can be narrow even when the model is uncertain.","At least one factor interval includes 1; its direction is uncertain under this approximation."]},"annualFrequency":{"available":true,"end":"2026-09","flag":false,"foldMagnitude":1.2073170731707317,"monthlyDelta":1.4166666666666667,"priorMonthlyMean":6.833333333333333,"priorStart":"2024-10","priorTotal":82,"ratio":1.2073170731707317,"reason":"Raw counts: latest 12 covered months versus preceding 12; descriptive, not a detected breakpoint","recentMonthlyMean":8.25,"recentStart":"2025-10","recentTotal":99,"score":0.21227189831904014,"windowMonths":12,"zeroBaseline":false},"flags":["turn"],"frequency":{"available":true,"end":"2026-09","flag":false,"foldMagnitude":1.2073170731707317,"monthlyDelta":1.4166666666666667,"priorMonthlyMean":6.833333333333333,"priorStart":"2024-10","priorTotal":82,"ratio":1.2073170731707317,"reason":"Raw counts: latest 12 covered months versus preceding 12; descriptive, not a detected breakpoint","recentMonthlyMean":8.25,"recentStart":"2025-10","recentTotal":99,"score":0.21227189831904014,"windowMonths":12,"zeroBaseline":false},"frequencyAssessment":"annual-policy","method":"multi-feed-turn-and-frequency-renewal-v2","observationHash":"d9e5a96cc3c46ac8c87bff8acfb991b8b28e323ccb3d0bbc7b6b8ee73709a0d9","phases":[{"factorInterval":[0.8290999637722297,0.9805571338282042],"fit":{"available":true,"calendarPeriod":"monthly","end":"2020-05","factor":0.90165397139566,"intercept":0.6774831429745831,"method":"log10-ols-calendar-zero-as-one-v2","origin":24201,"periodUnits":6,"sampleCount":44,"slope":-0.007493350015364344,"start":"2016-10","zeroCount":1},"lagOne":-0.1696623611580707,"slopeSE":0.0029732004553247606,"sse":2.634208043158447},{"factorInterval":[1.2647990685076171,1.544001653832297],"fit":{"available":true,"calendarPeriod":"monthly","end":"2023-11","factor":1.3974447586725243,"intercept":0.11857291175650497,"method":"log10-ols-calendar-zero-as-one-v2","origin":24245,"periodUnits":6,"sampleCount":42,"slope":0.024222441522072105,"start":"2020-06","zeroCount":3},"lagOne":0.07800601702983341,"slopeSE":0.0035346677810161133,"sse":3.0837385538338955},{"factorInterval":[0.9053246714107402,1.177979165235217],"fit":{"available":true,"calendarPeriod":"monthly","end":"2026-09","factor":1.0326924037172303,"intercept":0.7845758564749328,"method":"log10-ols-calendar-zero-as-one-v2","origin":24287,"periodUnits":6,"sampleCount":34,"slope":0.0023284970746064787,"start":"2023-12","zeroCount":0},"lagOne":0.2692322880795505,"slopeSE":0.004665216239955975,"sse":2.2791514814642877}],"ranking":{"frequency":0,"turn":1.411578384105419},"reason":"Review turn; heuristic thresholds, not confirmed discoveries","reviewContext":false,"status":"candidate","thresholds":{"minFrequencyRatio":1.5,"minMonthlyDelta":5,"minPhaseTotal":120,"minTurn":1.5},"turns":[{"boundary":"2020-06","factorRatio":1.5498681345676717,"flag":true,"foldMagnitude":1.5498681345676717,"followingFactor":1.3974447586725243,"followingTotal":264,"precedingFactor":0.90165397139566,"precedingTotal":170,"reversal":true,"score":1.411578384105419},{"boundary":"2023-12","factorRatio":0.7389862084410525,"flag":false,"foldMagnitude":1.3532052270766677,"followingFactor":1.0326924037172303,"followingTotal":261,"precedingFactor":1.3974447586725243,"precedingTotal":264,"reversal":false,"score":1.0552999015119209}],"warnings":["Exploratory description, not a forecast, causal explanation or proof of a change.","Approximate 95% factor intervals assume independent, constant-variance log residuals and fixed boundaries. They do not account for boundary search, serial dependence or source revisions.","Confirmed zeros are treated as 1 only for fitting and its diagnostics. Raw counts stay zero; low-count results depend on this convention.","Independent phase lines may jump at boundaries. Every observation belongs to exactly one phase.","Reporting, classifications and seasonality can change. Counts are not population-adjusted; a level shift without a slope change is not the target of this search.","Uses dated last-good cached data, not newly verified source counts.","4 confirmed zeros fitted as 1; raw counts remain zero. Low-count trends are sensitive to this adjustment.","Boundary ranges show near-optimal models within 2 BIC units, not confidence intervals. They can be narrow even when the model is uncertain.","At least one factor interval includes 1; its direction is uncertain under this approximation.","Many dependent filter conditions were searched. No multiple-testing-adjusted significance or causal attribution is claimed.","Frequency compares fixed equal-length windows of raw counts, not population risk or a celeration-factor ratio. Reporting, classifications and exposure may have changed."]},"runId":"428bcca196757dcac80daa442055cc5dd31e761469a1aaa53d0ed5c2fd7776f8","schemaVersion":1,"seriesId":"91c09011c1b81377dd90c96a1e1763fbdd673c81d51c5a7c2f22187a87453220"},"sha256":"1290102bc15fa5c17b409432701f70da0648fbfca20cf02318f1881d0ad3f591"}}