{"schemaVersion":1,"planHash":"a3ffccedeb8d8ce18a30df3636839f775af1e5188e55a1f685695133135c6e35","input":{"coverage":{"endExclusive":"2026-10","start":"2016-10"},"observations":[{"count":25,"month":"2016-10","status":"complete"},{"count":8,"month":"2016-11","status":"complete"},{"count":21,"month":"2016-12","status":"complete"},{"count":22,"month":"2017-01","status":"complete"},{"count":14,"month":"2017-02","status":"complete"},{"count":14,"month":"2017-03","status":"complete"},{"count":18,"month":"2017-04","status":"complete"},{"count":17,"month":"2017-05","status":"complete"},{"count":27,"month":"2017-06","status":"complete"},{"count":26,"month":"2017-07","status":"complete"},{"count":23,"month":"2017-08","status":"complete"},{"count":11,"month":"2017-09","status":"complete"},{"count":22,"month":"2017-10","status":"complete"},{"count":28,"month":"2017-11","status":"complete"},{"count":14,"month":"2017-12","status":"complete"},{"count":18,"month":"2018-01","status":"complete"},{"count":17,"month":"2018-02","status":"complete"},{"count":26,"month":"2018-03","status":"complete"},{"count":15,"month":"2018-04","status":"complete"},{"count":17,"month":"2018-05","status":"complete"},{"count":29,"month":"2018-06","status":"complete"},{"count":28,"month":"2018-07","status":"complete"},{"count":49,"month":"2018-08","status":"complete"},{"count":27,"month":"2018-09","status":"complete"},{"count":19,"month":"2018-10","status":"complete"},{"count":25,"month":"2018-11","status":"complete"},{"count":23,"month":"2018-12","status":"complete"},{"count":11,"month":"2019-01","status":"complete"},{"count":14,"month":"2019-02","status":"complete"},{"count":17,"month":"2019-03","status":"complete"},{"count":23,"month":"2019-04","status":"complete"},{"count":17,"month":"2019-05","status":"complete"},{"count":30,"month":"2019-06","status":"complete"},{"count":18,"month":"2019-07","status":"complete"},{"count":25,"month":"2019-08","status":"complete"},{"count":21,"month":"2019-09","status":"complete"},{"count":26,"month":"2019-10","status":"complete"},{"count":12,"month":"2019-11","status":"complete"},{"count":10,"month":"2019-12","status":"complete"},{"count":16,"month":"2020-01","status":"complete"},{"count":23,"month":"2020-02","status":"complete"},{"count":17,"month":"2020-03","status":"complete"},{"count":21,"month":"2020-04","status":"complete"},{"count":15,"month":"2020-05","status":"complete"},{"count":21,"month":"2020-06","status":"complete"},{"count":17,"month":"2020-07","status":"complete"},{"count":20,"month":"2020-08","status":"complete"},{"count":22,"month":"2020-09","status":"complete"},{"count":24,"month":"2020-10","status":"complete"},{"count":14,"month":"2020-11","status":"complete"},{"count":17,"month":"2020-12","status":"complete"},{"count":21,"month":"2021-01","status":"complete"},{"count":16,"month":"2021-02","status":"complete"},{"count":13,"month":"2021-03","status":"complete"},{"count":13,"month":"2021-04","status":"complete"},{"count":21,"month":"2021-05","status":"complete"},{"count":16,"month":"2021-06","status":"complete"},{"count":28,"month":"2021-07","status":"complete"},{"count":14,"month":"2021-08","status":"complete"},{"count":15,"month":"2021-09","status":"complete"},{"count":25,"month":"2021-10","status":"complete"},{"count":31,"month":"2021-11","status":"complete"},{"count":15,"month":"2021-12","status":"complete"},{"count":23,"month":"2022-01","status":"complete"},{"count":21,"month":"2022-02","status":"complete"},{"count":32,"month":"2022-03","status":"complete"},{"count":14,"month":"2022-04","status":"complete"},{"count":23,"month":"2022-05","status":"complete"},{"count":25,"month":"2022-06","status":"complete"},{"count":19,"month":"2022-07","status":"complete"},{"count":21,"month":"2022-08","status":"complete"},{"count":27,"month":"2022-09","status":"complete"},{"count":22,"month":"2022-10","status":"complete"},{"count":33,"month":"2022-11","status":"complete"},{"count":23,"month":"2022-12","status":"complete"},{"count":17,"month":"2023-01","status":"complete"},{"count":25,"month":"2023-02","status":"complete"},{"count":29,"month":"2023-03","status":"complete"},{"count":17,"month":"2023-04","status":"complete"},{"count":29,"month":"2023-05","status":"complete"},{"count":32,"month":"2023-06","status":"complete"},{"count":21,"month":"2023-07","status":"complete"},{"count":24,"month":"2023-08","status":"complete"},{"count":37,"month":"2023-09","status":"complete"},{"count":23,"month":"2023-10","status":"complete"},{"count":16,"month":"2023-11","status":"complete"},{"count":41,"month":"2023-12","status":"complete"},{"count":34,"month":"2024-01","status":"complete"},{"count":31,"month":"2024-02","status":"complete"},{"count":46,"month":"2024-03","status":"complete"},{"count":42,"month":"2024-04","status":"complete"},{"count":34,"month":"2024-05","status":"complete"},{"count":33,"month":"2024-06","status":"complete"},{"count":25,"month":"2024-07","status":"complete"},{"count":40,"month":"2024-08","status":"complete"},{"count":30,"month":"2024-09","status":"complete"},{"count":33,"month":"2024-10","status":"complete"},{"count":31,"month":"2024-11","status":"complete"},{"count":20,"month":"2024-12","status":"complete"},{"count":18,"month":"2025-01","status":"complete"},{"count":23,"month":"2025-02","status":"complete"},{"count":18,"month":"2025-03","status":"complete"},{"count":37,"month":"2025-04","status":"complete"},{"count":32,"month":"2025-05","status":"complete"},{"count":29,"month":"2025-06","status":"complete"},{"count":17,"month":"2025-07","status":"complete"},{"count":16,"month":"2025-08","status":"complete"},{"count":18,"month":"2025-09","status":"complete"},{"count":17,"month":"2025-10","status":"complete"},{"count":6,"month":"2025-11","status":"complete"},{"count":9,"month":"2025-12","status":"complete"},{"count":17,"month":"2026-01","status":"complete"},{"count":12,"month":"2026-02","status":"complete"},{"count":7,"month":"2026-03","status":"complete"},{"count":16,"month":"2026-04","status":"complete"},{"count":30,"month":"2026-05","status":"complete"},{"count":18,"month":"2026-06","status":"complete"},{"count":22,"month":"2026-07","status":"complete"},{"count":19,"month":"2026-08","status":"complete"},{"count":20,"month":"2026-09","status":"complete"}],"period":"monthly","selectedCount":2656,"selection":{"dataset":"crime","filters":{"area":"77","arrest":"all","domestic":"all","hourEnd":24,"hourStart":0,"status":"all","types":["CRIMINAL DAMAGE"],"ward":"all"},"period":"monthly","scenario":"normal","start":"2016-10","view":"chart"},"source":{"cacheStatus":"stale","completeThroughExclusive":"2026-10","coverage":{"endExclusive":"2026-10","start":"2016-10"},"coveragePolicy":"Complete closed calendar periods within the loaded published-record coverage. Counts are not final incidence; corrections remain possible. Unloaded/future periods are missing, not zero.","kind":"socrata","label":"City of Chicago · Crimes — 2001 to present","note":"Source ijzp-q8t2. Joint day/category/hour/applicable-flag/ward/status counts; no addresses, coordinates or incident identifiers. Each year's cells reconcile with an independent source total. Reads are not an atomic publisher snapshot. Published crime reports, not population-adjusted rates or final incidence. Prepared daily community-area snapshot; scheduled rebuild at 06:00 America/Chicago. Full supported history is rechecked for corrections. Retrieval timestamps are preserved; this is not a real-time feed. Crime analysis starts January 1, 2002; 2001 is excluded from counts and fitting inputs. Local indexed neighborhood snapshot. Totals are for the loaded area before other filters, not citywide totals. Citywide and unassigned-area views use a separate network-backed scope.","publishedUpdatedAt":"2026-11-05T12:12:19.000Z","retrievedAt":"2026-11-05T21:08:01.557Z","snapshotId":"daily-v1:ef0c5e9b-09d5-4a2d-849e-1be6745dbfbb:neighborhood-v2:8d407e5d5e23ffa91c5ed9a62a857f85","workingSet":{"area":"77","coverage":{"endExclusive":"2026-10-28","start":"2001-01-01"},"rowCount":80274}},"totalCount":28294,"window":{"endExclusive":"2026-10","start":"2016-10"}},"evidence":{"body":{"completedAt":"2026-11-09T17:39:32.964Z","inputHash":"f93348780a9a0792ed1cf3b1bbe803504c5fb2a5ddb0570918e16f274063f9d8","outcome":{"analysis":{"available":true,"bicGain":21.467436785989605,"boundaries":["2023-12","2025-10"],"boundaryRanges":[{"earliest":"2023-12","latest":"2023-12"},{"earliest":"2025-10","latest":"2025-10"}],"factorRatios":[0.7963608459556618,1.9732637733636471],"message":"Suggested 3-phase description — exploratory, not confirmed.","method":"exploratory-segmented-log10-ols-zero-as-one-v3","mode":"suggested","phases":[{"factorInterval":[0.9989187287472028,1.0324456599586183],"fit":{"available":true,"calendarPeriod":"monthly","end":"2023-11","factor":1.0155438474760359,"intercept":1.2554864270111152,"method":"log10-ols-calendar-zero-as-one-v2","origin":24201,"periodUnits":6,"sampleCount":86,"slope":0.0011164465659925585,"start":"2016-10","zeroCount":0},"lagOne":0.06722140004176046,"slopeSE":0.0005850041289069316,"sse":1.523535338627003},{"factorInterval":[0.7314988097584817,0.8941359023603414],"fit":{"available":true,"calendarPeriod":"monthly","end":"2025-09","factor":0.8087393574810835,"intercept":1.617086482436906,"method":"log10-ols-calendar-zero-as-one-v2","origin":24287,"periodUnits":6,"sampleCount":22,"slope":-0.015365236889556533,"start":"2023-12","zeroCount":0},"lagOne":0.21157167062435148,"slopeSE":0.0034831379716415813,"sse":0.21486214979329318},{"factorInterval":[1.0078939952080532,2.5268099900260492],"fit":{"available":true,"calendarPeriod":"monthly","end":"2026-09","factor":1.5958560762108143,"intercept":0.9616971875243316,"method":"log10-ols-calendar-zero-as-one-v2","origin":24309,"periodUnits":6,"sampleCount":12,"slope":0.033832286920379574,"start":"2025-10","zeroCount":0},"lagOne":-0.14228628969807972,"slopeSE":0.0149282577667534,"sse":0.3186796183294055}],"range":{"end":"2026-09","start":"2016-10"},"warnings":["Exploratory description, not a forecast, causal explanation or proof of a change.","Approximate 95% factor intervals assume independent, constant-variance log residuals and fixed boundaries. They do not account for boundary search, serial dependence or source revisions.","Confirmed zeros are treated as 1 only for fitting and its diagnostics. Raw counts stay zero; low-count results depend on this convention.","Independent phase lines may jump at boundaries. Every observation belongs to exactly one phase.","Reporting, classifications and seasonality can change. Counts are not population-adjusted; a level shift without a slope change is not the target of this search.","Uses dated last-good cached data, not newly verified source counts.","Boundary ranges show near-optimal models within 2 BIC units, not confidence intervals. They can be narrow even when the model is uncertain.","A phase is at the minimum allowed length; its boundary may be sensitive to that search limit.","At least one factor interval includes 1; its direction is uncertain under this approximation."]},"annualFrequency":{"available":true,"end":"2026-09","flag":true,"foldMagnitude":1.5129533678756477,"monthlyDelta":-8.25,"priorMonthlyMean":24.333333333333332,"priorStart":"2024-10","priorTotal":292,"ratio":0.660958904109589,"reason":"Raw counts: latest 12 covered months versus preceding 12; descriptive, not a detected breakpoint","recentMonthlyMean":16.083333333333332,"recentStart":"2025-10","recentTotal":193,"score":0.5484061663030249,"windowMonths":12,"zeroBaseline":false},"flags":["turn","frequency"],"frequency":{"available":true,"end":"2026-09","flag":true,"foldMagnitude":1.5129533678756477,"monthlyDelta":-8.25,"priorMonthlyMean":24.333333333333332,"priorStart":"2024-10","priorTotal":292,"ratio":0.660958904109589,"reason":"Raw counts: latest 12 covered months versus preceding 12; descriptive, not a detected breakpoint","recentMonthlyMean":16.083333333333332,"recentStart":"2025-10","recentTotal":193,"score":0.5484061663030249,"windowMonths":12,"zeroBaseline":false},"frequencyAssessment":"annual-policy","method":"multi-feed-turn-and-frequency-renewal-v2","observationHash":"b59c81f9e34667b64ab428529a901001e4006a5d2592dd99f893d64c65ccfd1e","phases":[{"factorInterval":[0.9989187287472028,1.0324456599586183],"fit":{"available":true,"calendarPeriod":"monthly","end":"2023-11","factor":1.0155438474760359,"intercept":1.2554864270111152,"method":"log10-ols-calendar-zero-as-one-v2","origin":24201,"periodUnits":6,"sampleCount":86,"slope":0.0011164465659925585,"start":"2016-10","zeroCount":0},"lagOne":0.06722140004176046,"slopeSE":0.0005850041289069316,"sse":1.523535338627003},{"factorInterval":[0.7314988097584817,0.8941359023603414],"fit":{"available":true,"calendarPeriod":"monthly","end":"2025-09","factor":0.8087393574810835,"intercept":1.617086482436906,"method":"log10-ols-calendar-zero-as-one-v2","origin":24287,"periodUnits":6,"sampleCount":22,"slope":-0.015365236889556533,"start":"2023-12","zeroCount":0},"lagOne":0.21157167062435148,"slopeSE":0.0034831379716415813,"sse":0.21486214979329318},{"factorInterval":[1.0078939952080532,2.5268099900260492],"fit":{"available":true,"calendarPeriod":"monthly","end":"2026-09","factor":1.5958560762108143,"intercept":0.9616971875243316,"method":"log10-ols-calendar-zero-as-one-v2","origin":24309,"periodUnits":6,"sampleCount":12,"slope":0.033832286920379574,"start":"2025-10","zeroCount":0},"lagOne":-0.14228628969807972,"slopeSE":0.0149282577667534,"sse":0.3186796183294055}],"ranking":{"frequency":0.5484061663030249,"turn":2.2433813580416424},"reason":"Review turn and frequency; heuristic thresholds, not confirmed discoveries","reviewContext":false,"status":"candidate","thresholds":{"minFrequencyRatio":1.5,"minMonthlyDelta":5,"minPhaseTotal":120,"minTurn":1.5},"turns":[{"boundary":"2023-12","factorRatio":0.7963608459556618,"flag":false,"foldMagnitude":1.2557121624933278,"followingFactor":0.8087393574810835,"followingTotal":648,"precedingFactor":1.0155438474760359,"precedingTotal":1815,"reversal":true,"score":0.9238387049763943},{"boundary":"2025-10","factorRatio":1.9732637733636471,"flag":true,"foldMagnitude":1.9732637733636471,"followingFactor":1.5958560762108143,"followingTotal":193,"precedingFactor":0.8087393574810835,"precedingTotal":648,"reversal":true,"score":2.2433813580416424}],"warnings":["Exploratory description, not a forecast, causal explanation or proof of a change.","Approximate 95% factor intervals assume independent, constant-variance log residuals and fixed boundaries. They do not account for boundary search, serial dependence or source revisions.","Confirmed zeros are treated as 1 only for fitting and its diagnostics. Raw counts stay zero; low-count results depend on this convention.","Independent phase lines may jump at boundaries. Every observation belongs to exactly one phase.","Reporting, classifications and seasonality can change. Counts are not population-adjusted; a level shift without a slope change is not the target of this search.","Uses dated last-good cached data, not newly verified source counts.","Boundary ranges show near-optimal models within 2 BIC units, not confidence intervals. They can be narrow even when the model is uncertain.","A phase is at the minimum allowed length; its boundary may be sensitive to that search limit.","At least one factor interval includes 1; its direction is uncertain under this approximation.","Many dependent filter conditions were searched. No multiple-testing-adjusted significance or causal attribution is claimed.","Frequency compares fixed equal-length windows of raw counts, not population risk or a celeration-factor ratio. Reporting, classifications and exposure may have changed."]},"runId":"328fa5e6fce70cb6c5853605b8080045d3320d01a92b71df6200512e2105e16f","schemaVersion":1,"seriesId":"86dd33cd02d654ace7bd9342b992ec53d37424c099b29efbd4e46a34174fdf3c"},"sha256":"4e7d75b764094545c990d1a4d571cf609086ec91a504e7206256a45b9b55edf9"}}