{"schemaVersion":1,"planHash":"a3ffccedeb8d8ce18a30df3636839f775af1e5188e55a1f685695133135c6e35","input":{"coverage":{"endExclusive":"2026-10","start":"2016-10"},"observations":[{"count":21,"month":"2016-10","status":"complete"},{"count":17,"month":"2016-11","status":"complete"},{"count":22,"month":"2016-12","status":"complete"},{"count":34,"month":"2017-01","status":"complete"},{"count":14,"month":"2017-02","status":"complete"},{"count":20,"month":"2017-03","status":"complete"},{"count":8,"month":"2017-04","status":"complete"},{"count":18,"month":"2017-05","status":"complete"},{"count":18,"month":"2017-06","status":"complete"},{"count":14,"month":"2017-07","status":"complete"},{"count":23,"month":"2017-08","status":"complete"},{"count":20,"month":"2017-09","status":"complete"},{"count":10,"month":"2017-10","status":"complete"},{"count":17,"month":"2017-11","status":"complete"},{"count":14,"month":"2017-12","status":"complete"},{"count":15,"month":"2018-01","status":"complete"},{"count":8,"month":"2018-02","status":"complete"},{"count":15,"month":"2018-03","status":"complete"},{"count":8,"month":"2018-04","status":"complete"},{"count":21,"month":"2018-05","status":"complete"},{"count":18,"month":"2018-06","status":"complete"},{"count":24,"month":"2018-07","status":"complete"},{"count":18,"month":"2018-08","status":"complete"},{"count":16,"month":"2018-09","status":"complete"},{"count":22,"month":"2018-10","status":"complete"},{"count":9,"month":"2018-11","status":"complete"},{"count":21,"month":"2018-12","status":"complete"},{"count":17,"month":"2019-01","status":"complete"},{"count":8,"month":"2019-02","status":"complete"},{"count":10,"month":"2019-03","status":"complete"},{"count":11,"month":"2019-04","status":"complete"},{"count":6,"month":"2019-05","status":"complete"},{"count":14,"month":"2019-06","status":"complete"},{"count":8,"month":"2019-07","status":"complete"},{"count":14,"month":"2019-08","status":"complete"},{"count":22,"month":"2019-09","status":"complete"},{"count":11,"month":"2019-10","status":"complete"},{"count":13,"month":"2019-11","status":"complete"},{"count":10,"month":"2019-12","status":"complete"},{"count":10,"month":"2020-01","status":"complete"},{"count":10,"month":"2020-02","status":"complete"},{"count":11,"month":"2020-03","status":"complete"},{"count":8,"month":"2020-04","status":"complete"},{"count":7,"month":"2020-05","status":"complete"},{"count":8,"month":"2020-06","status":"complete"},{"count":14,"month":"2020-07","status":"complete"},{"count":12,"month":"2020-08","status":"complete"},{"count":11,"month":"2020-09","status":"complete"},{"count":15,"month":"2020-10","status":"complete"},{"count":7,"month":"2020-11","status":"complete"},{"count":10,"month":"2020-12","status":"complete"},{"count":11,"month":"2021-01","status":"complete"},{"count":12,"month":"2021-02","status":"complete"},{"count":4,"month":"2021-03","status":"complete"},{"count":9,"month":"2021-04","status":"complete"},{"count":17,"month":"2021-05","status":"complete"},{"count":10,"month":"2021-06","status":"complete"},{"count":7,"month":"2021-07","status":"complete"},{"count":15,"month":"2021-08","status":"complete"},{"count":17,"month":"2021-09","status":"complete"},{"count":13,"month":"2021-10","status":"complete"},{"count":11,"month":"2021-11","status":"complete"},{"count":18,"month":"2021-12","status":"complete"},{"count":6,"month":"2022-01","status":"complete"},{"count":12,"month":"2022-02","status":"complete"},{"count":3,"month":"2022-03","status":"complete"},{"count":6,"month":"2022-04","status":"complete"},{"count":12,"month":"2022-05","status":"complete"},{"count":19,"month":"2022-06","status":"complete"},{"count":15,"month":"2022-07","status":"complete"},{"count":9,"month":"2022-08","status":"complete"},{"count":25,"month":"2022-09","status":"complete"},{"count":15,"month":"2022-10","status":"complete"},{"count":51,"month":"2022-11","status":"complete"},{"count":21,"month":"2022-12","status":"complete"},{"count":24,"month":"2023-01","status":"complete"},{"count":8,"month":"2023-02","status":"complete"},{"count":18,"month":"2023-03","status":"complete"},{"count":30,"month":"2023-04","status":"complete"},{"count":42,"month":"2023-05","status":"complete"},{"count":36,"month":"2023-06","status":"complete"},{"count":20,"month":"2023-07","status":"complete"},{"count":17,"month":"2023-08","status":"complete"},{"count":17,"month":"2023-09","status":"complete"},{"count":45,"month":"2023-10","status":"complete"},{"count":28,"month":"2023-11","status":"complete"},{"count":25,"month":"2023-12","status":"complete"},{"count":24,"month":"2024-01","status":"complete"},{"count":26,"month":"2024-02","status":"complete"},{"count":24,"month":"2024-03","status":"complete"},{"count":17,"month":"2024-04","status":"complete"},{"count":21,"month":"2024-05","status":"complete"},{"count":22,"month":"2024-06","status":"complete"},{"count":16,"month":"2024-07","status":"complete"},{"count":18,"month":"2024-08","status":"complete"},{"count":19,"month":"2024-09","status":"complete"},{"count":29,"month":"2024-10","status":"complete"},{"count":16,"month":"2024-11","status":"complete"},{"count":7,"month":"2024-12","status":"complete"},{"count":9,"month":"2025-01","status":"complete"},{"count":4,"month":"2025-02","status":"complete"},{"count":17,"month":"2025-03","status":"complete"},{"count":7,"month":"2025-04","status":"complete"},{"count":9,"month":"2025-05","status":"complete"},{"count":8,"month":"2025-06","status":"complete"},{"count":12,"month":"2025-07","status":"complete"},{"count":14,"month":"2025-08","status":"complete"},{"count":10,"month":"2025-09","status":"complete"},{"count":7,"month":"2025-10","status":"complete"},{"count":21,"month":"2025-11","status":"complete"},{"count":6,"month":"2025-12","status":"complete"},{"count":6,"month":"2026-01","status":"complete"},{"count":1,"month":"2026-02","status":"complete"},{"count":4,"month":"2026-03","status":"complete"},{"count":4,"month":"2026-04","status":"complete"},{"count":8,"month":"2026-05","status":"complete"},{"count":9,"month":"2026-06","status":"complete"},{"count":4,"month":"2026-07","status":"complete"},{"count":5,"month":"2026-08","status":"complete"},{"count":4,"month":"2026-09","status":"complete"}],"period":"monthly","selectedCount":1788,"selection":{"dataset":"crime","filters":{"area":"30","arrest":"all","domestic":"all","hourEnd":24,"hourStart":0,"status":"all","types":["ROBBERY"],"ward":"all"},"period":"monthly","scenario":"normal","start":"2016-10","view":"chart"},"source":{"cacheStatus":"stale","completeThroughExclusive":"2026-10","coverage":{"endExclusive":"2026-10","start":"2016-10"},"coveragePolicy":"Complete closed calendar periods within the loaded published-record coverage. Counts are not final incidence; corrections remain possible. Unloaded/future periods are missing, not zero.","kind":"socrata","label":"City of Chicago · Crimes — 2001 to present","note":"Source ijzp-q8t2. Joint day/category/hour/applicable-flag/ward/status counts; no addresses, coordinates or incident identifiers. Each year's cells reconcile with an independent source total. Reads are not an atomic publisher snapshot. Published crime reports, not population-adjusted rates or final incidence. Prepared daily community-area snapshot; scheduled rebuild at 06:00 America/Chicago. Full supported history is rechecked for corrections. Retrieval timestamps are preserved; this is not a real-time feed. Crime analysis starts January 1, 2002; 2001 is excluded from counts and fitting inputs. Local indexed neighborhood snapshot. Totals are for the loaded area before other filters, not citywide totals. Citywide and unassigned-area views use a separate network-backed scope.","publishedUpdatedAt":"2026-11-05T12:12:19.000Z","retrievedAt":"2026-11-05T21:08:01.557Z","snapshotId":"daily-v1:ef0c5e9b-09d5-4a2d-849e-1be6745dbfbb:neighborhood-v2:e3dd7ef3b761f6ebf4652e5cde46e2f4","workingSet":{"area":"30","coverage":{"endExclusive":"2026-10-28","start":"2001-01-01"},"rowCount":129071}},"totalCount":40646,"window":{"endExclusive":"2026-10","start":"2016-10"}},"evidence":{"body":{"completedAt":"2026-11-09T17:37:36.520Z","inputHash":"ba604ac675c4187a1804ffab1bf0695126e7e9dc29ff7e6053b68e6fba257965","outcome":{"analysis":{"available":true,"bicGain":47.00739671096056,"boundaries":["2022-05","2023-11"],"boundaryRanges":[{"earliest":"2022-05","latest":"2022-06"},{"earliest":"2023-07","latest":"2024-04"}],"factorRatios":[1.3542811515252353,0.561996500649914],"message":"Suggested 3-phase description — exploratory, not confirmed.","method":"exploratory-segmented-log10-ols-zero-as-one-v3","mode":"suggested","phases":[{"factorInterval":[0.9036124999191366,0.9598766009594693],"fit":{"available":true,"calendarPeriod":"monthly","end":"2022-04","factor":0.931319759806947,"intercept":1.2617270483458378,"method":"log10-ols-calendar-zero-as-one-v2","origin":24201,"periodUnits":6,"sampleCount":67,"slope":-0.005150197087225617,"start":"2016-10","zeroCount":0},"lagOne":-0.01436901995786622,"slopeSE":0.0010704097889864049,"sse":1.8662073938102894},{"factorInterval":[0.9481783683747461,1.677742322239258],"fit":{"available":true,"calendarPeriod":"monthly","end":"2023-10","factor":1.2612687967495577,"intercept":1.1655927718119035,"method":"log10-ols-calendar-zero-as-one-v2","origin":24268,"periodUnits":6,"sampleCount":18,"slope":0.016801275267458955,"start":"2022-05","zeroCount":0},"lagOne":-0.010890696295149254,"slopeSE":0.009742409897476111,"sse":0.7357775963321348},{"factorInterval":[0.639413054458746,0.7857801021936704],"fit":{"available":true,"calendarPeriod":"monthly","end":"2026-09","factor":0.7088286501521791,"intercept":1.4521498997041185,"method":"log10-ols-calendar-zero-as-one-v2","origin":24286,"periodUnits":6,"sampleCount":35,"slope":-0.024909789502218296,"start":"2023-11","zeroCount":0},"lagOne":0.11902425355792141,"slopeSE":0.003652725217261811,"sse":1.5718683222253644}],"range":{"end":"2026-09","start":"2016-10"},"warnings":["Exploratory description, not a forecast, causal explanation or proof of a change.","Approximate 95% factor intervals assume independent, constant-variance log residuals and fixed boundaries. They do not account for boundary search, serial dependence or source revisions.","Confirmed zeros are treated as 1 only for fitting and its diagnostics. Raw counts stay zero; low-count results depend on this convention.","Independent phase lines may jump at boundaries. Every observation belongs to exactly one phase.","Reporting, classifications and seasonality can change. Counts are not population-adjusted; a level shift without a slope change is not the target of this search.","Uses dated last-good cached data, not newly verified source counts.","Boundary ranges show near-optimal models within 2 BIC units, not confidence intervals. They can be narrow even when the model is uncertain.","At least one factor interval includes 1; its direction is uncertain under this approximation."]},"annualFrequency":{"available":true,"end":"2026-09","flag":true,"foldMagnitude":1.7974683544303798,"monthlyDelta":-5.25,"priorMonthlyMean":11.833333333333334,"priorStart":"2024-10","priorTotal":142,"ratio":0.5563380281690141,"reason":"Raw counts: latest 12 covered months versus preceding 12; descriptive, not a detected breakpoint","recentMonthlyMean":6.583333333333333,"recentStart":"2025-10","recentTotal":79,"score":0.6688698524452047,"windowMonths":12,"zeroBaseline":false},"flags":["turn","frequency"],"frequency":{"available":true,"end":"2026-09","flag":true,"foldMagnitude":1.7974683544303798,"monthlyDelta":-5.25,"priorMonthlyMean":11.833333333333334,"priorStart":"2024-10","priorTotal":142,"ratio":0.5563380281690141,"reason":"Raw counts: latest 12 covered months versus preceding 12; descriptive, not a detected breakpoint","recentMonthlyMean":6.583333333333333,"recentStart":"2025-10","recentTotal":79,"score":0.6688698524452047,"windowMonths":12,"zeroBaseline":false},"frequencyAssessment":"annual-policy","method":"multi-feed-turn-and-frequency-renewal-v2","observationHash":"146edac2e9bd833bf6dd1c50abaa67b6c9ce34c45e20de52f2e68e2ffbf86ef4","phases":[{"factorInterval":[0.9036124999191366,0.9598766009594693],"fit":{"available":true,"calendarPeriod":"monthly","end":"2022-04","factor":0.931319759806947,"intercept":1.2617270483458378,"method":"log10-ols-calendar-zero-as-one-v2","origin":24201,"periodUnits":6,"sampleCount":67,"slope":-0.005150197087225617,"start":"2016-10","zeroCount":0},"lagOne":-0.01436901995786622,"slopeSE":0.0010704097889864049,"sse":1.8662073938102894},{"factorInterval":[0.9481783683747461,1.677742322239258],"fit":{"available":true,"calendarPeriod":"monthly","end":"2023-10","factor":1.2612687967495577,"intercept":1.1655927718119035,"method":"log10-ols-calendar-zero-as-one-v2","origin":24268,"periodUnits":6,"sampleCount":18,"slope":0.016801275267458955,"start":"2022-05","zeroCount":0},"lagOne":-0.010890696295149254,"slopeSE":0.009742409897476111,"sse":0.7357775963321348},{"factorInterval":[0.639413054458746,0.7857801021936704],"fit":{"available":true,"calendarPeriod":"monthly","end":"2026-09","factor":0.7088286501521791,"intercept":1.4521498997041185,"method":"log10-ols-calendar-zero-as-one-v2","origin":24286,"periodUnits":6,"sampleCount":35,"slope":-0.024909789502218296,"start":"2023-11","zeroCount":0},"lagOne":0.11902425355792141,"slopeSE":0.003652725217261811,"sse":1.5718683222253644}],"ranking":{"frequency":0.6688698524452047,"turn":2.1851556817668127},"reason":"Review turn and frequency; heuristic thresholds, not confirmed discoveries","reviewContext":false,"status":"candidate","thresholds":{"minFrequencyRatio":1.5,"minMonthlyDelta":5,"minPhaseTotal":120,"minTurn":1.5},"turns":[{"boundary":"2022-05","factorRatio":1.3542811515252353,"flag":false,"foldMagnitude":1.3542811515252353,"followingFactor":1.2612687967495577,"followingTotal":424,"precedingFactor":0.931319759806947,"precedingTotal":903,"reversal":true,"score":1.1499918499768682},{"boundary":"2023-11","factorRatio":0.561996500649914,"flag":true,"foldMagnitude":1.7793705100362052,"followingFactor":0.7088286501521791,"followingTotal":461,"precedingFactor":1.2612687967495577,"precedingTotal":424,"reversal":true,"score":2.1851556817668127}],"warnings":["Exploratory description, not a forecast, causal explanation or proof of a change.","Approximate 95% factor intervals assume independent, constant-variance log residuals and fixed boundaries. They do not account for boundary search, serial dependence or source revisions.","Confirmed zeros are treated as 1 only for fitting and its diagnostics. Raw counts stay zero; low-count results depend on this convention.","Independent phase lines may jump at boundaries. Every observation belongs to exactly one phase.","Reporting, classifications and seasonality can change. Counts are not population-adjusted; a level shift without a slope change is not the target of this search.","Uses dated last-good cached data, not newly verified source counts.","Boundary ranges show near-optimal models within 2 BIC units, not confidence intervals. They can be narrow even when the model is uncertain.","At least one factor interval includes 1; its direction is uncertain under this approximation.","Many dependent filter conditions were searched. No multiple-testing-adjusted significance or causal attribution is claimed.","Frequency compares fixed equal-length windows of raw counts, not population risk or a celeration-factor ratio. Reporting, classifications and exposure may have changed."]},"runId":"d56e7d316b3ef233f88cc5e416f4a321a82f3c6c21a29fb45df43d2e70d04a27","schemaVersion":1,"seriesId":"0fc645018f5ef800c5fc078de232ac22e0a524bea3afef113a0f25b798a40b02"},"sha256":"f881b8be6319b308403a2708d5d88efd005360e2114ed85b50130f071c97cff2"}}